Australian dollar to Japanese yen prediction: Range-bound trading likely as sellers retain control

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Australian Dollar vs Yen falls 0.92% today

Highlights

Australia reported an unexpected loss of 39,300 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.7%, indicating weaker labor conditions.
The weaker employment outlook reduces the probability of further Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes and dampens speculative support for the Australian Dollar.
AUD/JPY trades below key moving averages with technical indicators showing strong downside momentum and an expected range of ¥108.8 to ¥109.9 over the next two days.

Disappointing jobs data and rate outlook drive renewed selling

Weaker-than-expected labor figures have pressured the Australian Dollar, with Australia unexpectedly losing 39,300 jobs while unemployment held steady at 4.7%, according to FXStreet. The disappointing employment report points to softer economic conditions and reduces the likelihood of additional rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, lessening speculative support for the currency. As a result, negative momentum has spilled over to the Australian Dollar vs Yen, combining with ongoing market caution in the cross, as noted by Icmarkets Com.

Oversold signals deepen as resistance holds and sellers dominate

AUD/JPY is currently trading below the MA-20 at ¥110.05, MA-50 at ¥110.4, and MA-200 at ¥112.38, with the Ichimoku Kijun line at ¥110.24 establishing immediate resistance. Momentum indicators remain weak: MACD and ADX both indicate sustained downside risk, while RSI at 26.64 signals the pair is deeply oversold; CCI confirms this oversold state. Stoch RSI registers as neutral, implying some short-term stabilization. Intraday measures show sellers retain control based on Bull/Bear Power, and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, not providing additional trend confirmation.

Further downside likely as volatility bands define short-term risk

Over the coming 1–2 trading days, AUD/JPY is expected to move within a typical volatility band of ¥108.8 to ¥109.9. Downside risk is elevated, with a high likelihood of further declines and only a low probability of a near-term reversal. Should the pair break below ¥108.8, bearish momentum may intensify; conversely, a move above ¥110.24 resistance would be required to shift the outlook to bullish. The base scenario is for the pair to remain range-bound within these levels.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent downside in AUD/JPY after weak Australian labor data and oversold technical signals. He notes that all major momentum indicators remain bearish, with no technical sign of trend reversal. The analyst remains cautious due to the elevated risk and lack of support from fundamentals. "As long as AUD/JPY trades below the key resistance at ¥110.24, I see no reason to expect a sustainable recovery."

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/JPY was experiencing persistent downside momentum, with technical signals pointing to increased bearish risk. The latest developments reinforce this view, highlighting that elevated downside risk remains in place, and traders should monitor ¥108.8 as a key support level for potential further declines.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.