US Dollar vs Hungarian Forint edges lower as EU releases frozen funds for Hungary

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Us dollar/forint slides 0.68% today

Highlights

The European Union has unfrozen previously withheld funds for Hungary, affecting fiscal policy assessments and government credibility.
Hungary's budget plans, deficit targets, and prospects of euro adoption are being evaluated, with ongoing fiscal policy review.
USD/HUF trades under short-term pressure but holds a medium- and long-term bullish structure, with a five-day forecast range of Ft321.9784 to Ft326.0926.

Hungary’s fiscal credibility eyed as fund flows weigh on forint

The European Union released previously frozen funds for Hungary. Fiscal policy developments, including Hungary's upcoming budget plans, deficit targets, and potential euro adoption, have also been under review. These fiscal discussions have been seen as credibility tests for the Hungarian government, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees USD/HUF showing medium- and long-term resilience but flags that the recent EU fund release has yet to generate genuine demand for the forint. He notes sellers are taking advantage of the news, pressing the pair toward its week low despite the dominant longer-term bullish structure. Mixed momentum signals and choppy intraday action point to indecision, and the overbought warning from Bull/Bear Power heightens downside risk. Kharitonov remains cautious about policymakers’ credibility, stressing that support at Ft323.8291 could quickly give way. "Investors should be wary of a drop below Ft321.9784, as renewed fiscal or political setbacks could trigger deeper losses," he warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the EU’s decision to unfreeze funds strengthens market confidence in Hungary’s outlook. He views the medium- to long-term bullish trend in USD/HUF as undisturbed, expecting the consolidation phase to offer new entry opportunities for buyers. Momentum remains constructive, and the wider volatility band signals potential for further gains if resistance breaks. "With firm support above key averages, the bullish structure remains intact and further growth is likely," Karapetjanc states.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, highlights that USD/HUF remains technically above its 50- and 200-day moving averages. He observes that diverging momentum indicators suggest elevated volatility and a rangebound scenario in the near term. Mehta sees scope for a tactical breakout trade if Ft326.0926 is breached. "A contrarian entry could be considered near Ft323.8291, targeting swift moves as sentiment resets," he suggests.

Technical support remains as mixed momentum clouds short-term trend

USD/HUF is trading below the 20-day moving average at Ft324.5598 but remains above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (Ft318.2068 and Ft317.3798, respectively), indicating lingering short-term pressure but a medium- to long-term bullish trend structure. The nearest support lies at Ft323.8291 (week low), with resistance at Ft324.5598. The Ichimoku Kijun (Ft322.3302) provides additional support just below current levels. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD and ADX forecast renewed buying strength, yet the RSI at 59.05 points to mild buying. The Stochastic RSI signals an oversold condition near 18. CCI and Awesome Oscillator both indicate a neutral undertone. Bull/Bear Power is positive, suggesting buyers dominate on an intraday basis, but also cautioning of a mild overbought situation. The pair opened nearly flat and slipped Ft2.218, or 0.68%, trading near the session low. Intraday volatility stands at 0.85%. BBP dominance and post-open losses imply choppiness amid diverging momentum signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that waning upside momentum and heightened downside risk in USD/HUF made the pair’s response to fiscal developments critical for near-term direction. Current price action, following the release of EU funds and amid mixed technical signals, suggests that a decisive move above Ft326.0926 remains the key upside trigger to monitor in the coming days.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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