USD/BRL technical analysis: Sellers retain control while R$5.0695 stands as resistance

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US Dollar vs Brazilian Real slides 0.54%

Highlights

USD/BRL trades below short and long-term moving averages, indicating continued bearish momentum and selling pressure persists.
Momentum indicators mostly confirm a downside bias, with MACD, RSI, and CCI in sell or oversold territory.
Expected trading range for the next 2 to 3 days is R$5.0093 to R$5.0647, with a high probability of further downside.

Persistent selling pressure as technicals show weak momentum

On the technical front, USD/BRL continues to trade below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, and remains under the long-term MA-200, with the Ichimoku Kijun line at R$5.0695 serving as immediate resistance. The pair recently dipped to R$5.037, closing near session lows after a negative gap of 0.005, pointing to persistent downward momentum. Momentum indicators show that MACD is tilted towards a sell bias, while ADX is neutral, indicating a market lacking strong trend conviction. RSI remains in sell territory, CCI is oversold, and Stochastic RSI is neutral, reflecting generally weak sentiment with mild oversold pressures, while Bull/Bear Power continues to confirm seller dominance and the Awesome Oscillator does not reinforce the trend direction.

Further declines favored as narrow range signals low upside

Over the next 2–3 trading days, the anticipated price range for USD/BRL falls between R$5.0093 and R$5.0647, based on its current volatility band. The probability of an upward move from here is very low, while further declines remain highly likely. Should the price persist within this corridor, ongoing consolidation near the recent lows is expected, while a move above R$5.0695 or below R$5.0093 would signal an exit from this range and a potential escalation of directional momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees weak technical structure in USD/BRL, with intraday sentiment remaining cautious. He notes that momentum and oscillators reinforce bearish conditions, while price still struggles below key resistance at R$5.0695. Without supportive news, the analyst believes downside risks dominate unless the price reclaims higher levels. "As long as USD/BRL stays around these lows and under resistance, I remain defensive and see little reason to enter long positions."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/BRL was under persistent downside pressure amid prevailing bearish technical signals. The current analysis reinforces this negative bias, highlighting ongoing weakness as the pair remains constrained by key resistance and exhibits a heightened risk of further declines should it break below the lower end of its projected range.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.