Australian dollar to Indian rupee prediction: Sideways movement expected below ₹66.5919 resistance

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Australian Dollar vs Rupee slides 0.51%

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of India held a record net short dollar forward position of $239.2 billion at September end due to ongoing rupee intervention.
Authorities continued to bolster foreign exchange reserves and manage currency volatility through sustained central bank activity and increased forward positions.
AUD/INR trades below major moving averages with strong downside momentum, an expected range of ₹65.9293 to ₹66.5919 and low probability of reversal.

Aggressive RBI intervention as dollar forward positions surge

The Reserve Bank of India’s net short dollar forward position more than doubled to a record $239.2 billion by the end of September, reflecting sustained currency intervention aimed at supporting the rupee, according to Cnbctv18. This aggressive build-up, alongside an increased dollar forward position noted by Economictimes Indiatimes, signals efforts to strengthen foreign exchange reserves and maintain broader control over currency fluctuations. With a backdrop of persistent central bank activity, interventions continue to exert influence over AUD/INR pricing dynamics, as mechanisms to temper INR depreciation remain active.

Downside pressure as sellers dominate below resistance zone

On the hourly chart, AUD/INR is positioned below the MA-20 and MA-50, with the daily chart also showing the pair beneath the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun at ₹66.6496 stands as the primary resistance. Support lies toward ₹65.9293, while the upside is capped near ₹66.5919. Momentum indicators reinforce the downside bias: both MACD and Awesome Oscillator point to seller dominance, while ADX is neutral. RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI all register oversold conditions, and Bull/Bear Power confirms that sellers maintain intraday control.

Limited downside risk as rangebound trading is expected

Over the next 2–3 sessions, AUD/INR is expected to remain rangebound within the ₹65.9293–₹66.5919 corridor based on historical volatility. The probability of a further decline is high, with chances of an upside reversal below 20%. A bullish shift would require a sustained move above the Ichimoku Kijun resistance, while a break below support could prompt a test of the range lows. Oversold readings highlight that any sharp extension lower may be limited barring a fresh catalyst.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union analyst, points out that persistent and aggressive RBI interventions are weighing on AUD/INR, with the pair unable to recover above major moving averages. He notes that technical momentum and oversold readings suggest sellers remain dominant, though excessive bearishness could limit immediate downside unless a new catalyst emerges. The analyst believes the range of ₹65.9293–₹66.5919 will confine price action in the short term, given both technical and central bank headwinds. "As long as AUD/INR remains capped below resistance and RBI intervention persists, I see no reason to anticipate a bullish reversal here."

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/INR showed persistent downside pressure within a broader bearish trend, influenced by ongoing central bank intervention. The current analysis reinforces this outlook and suggests that unless a sustained break above resistance occurs, traders should remain alert for further downside risk should support near ₹65.9293 give way.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.