Trump second-term scorecard shows mixed results on economy, energy and immigration

Traders Union
All News
Economic Data
Trump second-term scorecard

Highlights

U.S. consumer price inflation rose to 3.7 per cent in September and 30-year mortgage rates climbed to 7.4 per cent, both above December 2024 levels.
Crude oil production increased to 13.95mn b/d in July, but petrol prices surged to $4.26 a gallon and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 283mn barrels.
Illegal border crossings dropped to 8,870 in August from 47,320 in December 2024, while ICE arrests surged to nearly 50,000 in July.

Promises tested before midterm vote

As reported by the Financial Times, Trump’s record since returning to the White House presents a split picture between campaign promises and measurable outcomes. The review comes as the president urges voters to treat the midterm elections as if he were personally on the ballot.

On inflation, the administration has not met its goal of making life cheaper for households. Consumer price growth reached 3.7 per cent in September, above the 2.9 per cent annual rate recorded in December 2024, while 30-year mortgage rates climbed to 7.4 per cent this month from 7.04 per cent when Trump took office.

Trade policy has also produced uneven results. Tariffs rose to an effective 11.6 per cent in October from 2.7 per cent at the start of Trump’s term, according to the Yale Budget Lab, yet the U.S. trade deficit widened, with imports exceeding exports by $105.6bn in August versus $96.9bn in December 2024.

Elsewhere, the economy has continued to grow at a pace ahead of other G7 countries. U.S. GDP expanded at an annualised 2.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecasts 3.5 per cent growth in the third quarter.

Trump has had more success on tax and regulatory pledges. Congress extended broad tax breaks and introduced deductions tied to tips, overtime and seniors, while the Office of Management and Budget said 218 deregulatory actions were taken in fiscal 2025 against five significant regulatory actions.

Energy gains offset by higher costs and war impact

In energy, U.S. oil and gas output has risen further under Trump, but consumers have not seen the lower prices he promised. Crude production increased from 13.53mn barrels a day in December 2024 to 13.95mn b/d in July, while oil, petroleum product and liquefied natural gas exports also moved higher.

Fuel and power costs, however, have climbed sharply. Petrol reached $4.26 a gallon on Wednesday and diesel $6.32, while residential electricity prices rose to 18.31 cents per kilowatt-hour in July 2026 from 16.27 cents in December 2024.

The administration also has not rebuilt the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as pledged. After a modest refill early in the term, stockpiles fell to 283mn barrels in early October, their lowest level since 1982, after withdrawals linked to the Iran war.

On climate policy, Trump has achieved much of his rollback agenda. The U.S. withdrew again from the Paris Agreement, the Environmental Protection Agency rescinded the legal finding underpinning greenhouse gas rules, and tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act were curtailed.

Foreign policy remains one of the clearest gaps between rhetoric and outcome. The Russia-Ukraine war continues into its 56th month, and Trump’s vow to avoid new foreign wars has been undermined by the conflict with Iran, which began in February and has no end in sight after nearly eight months.

Border crackdown marks clearest policy win

Immigration stands out as the area where the administration has moved closest to its campaign promises. Illegal border crossings fell to 8,870 in August from 47,320 in December 2024 and from a peak of 250,000 in December 2023, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

Enforcement inside the country has also intensified. Arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement rose to almost 50,000 in July, compared with fewer than 9,000 in December 2024, although the crackdown has drawn scrutiny after deadly shootings involving federal immigration agents.

In our earlier article on surging U.S. toy prices ahead of the holiday shopping season, we explained how import duties and energy- and shipping-related costs were pushing toy inflation above other categories. The piece noted that earlier high tariffs on Chinese goods continued to show up in shelf prices, while the Iran war’s impact on fuel, commodities and logistics added another layer of pressure for both consumers and manufacturers.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.