UK retail survey shows sales downturn easing as CBI balance improves
British retailers report the smallest drop in sales in a year and a half, offering a rare brighter signal for the sector as wider consumer indicators remain weak. The October reading from the Confederation of British Industry contrasts with recent official sales data and a sharp fall in consumer confidence.
Highlights
- CBI retail sales volume balance rises to -10 in November from October's five-month low of -55, signaling the slowest sales decline since April 2025.
- Orders placed with suppliers improve to -36 in October from September's record low of -62, suggesting easing retail headwinds.
- CBI urges finance minister John Healey to cut employers' social security contributions and property taxes as businesses face cautious spending and higher fuel costs.
October survey points to a slower sales decline
As reported by Reuters, citing the Confederation of British Industry, its monthly retail sales volume balance rises to -10 in November from October's five-month low of -55, the highest level since April 2025. The group also says sales for the time of year are the strongest since May 2024.The CBI says expectations for sales volumes in November improve to -10 from -37 expected for October. Its balance for orders placed with suppliers also rises to -36 in October from September's record low of -62.
CBI Lead Economist Martin Sartorius says the retail sales downturn eases in October, with volumes falling at their slowest annual pace in over a year. He adds that the outlook remains fragile because businesses still face pressure from cautious household spending and higher fuel costs.
Consumer backdrop remains weak for retailers
The survey stands out against other recent measures of UK consumer demand. Official data published last week shows annual retail sales volume growth slows sharply in September to 0.8% from 2.7% in the 12 months to August.Britain's longest-running consumer confidence survey, published by GfK, records its sharpest fall since the COVID-19 pandemic in October. The CBI also calls on finance minister John Healey to cut employers' social security contributions and property taxes in his first annual budget on Wednesday.
The CBI survey is based on responses from 68 retail chains collected between Sept. 28 and Oct. 14.
Our earlier article on Moody’s upgraded global growth outlook highlighted how improving household demand and a steadier labor market were underpinning a more optimistic view of the economy. It also noted that, despite the rebound supported by easing restrictions, inflation pressures and supply-chain disruptions remained key risks that could slow momentum in some regions and sectors.
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