Mexico trade surplus narrows as import growth outpaces exports in third quarter

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Mexico trade surplus narrows Q3

Highlights

Mexico posts a U.S.$4.7 billion trade surplus in Q3 2026, down from U.S.$7.2 billion in Q2 as import growth outpaces exports.
Non-oil exports climb 11.4% to U.S.$226.9 billion, with manufacturing up 12.1% to U.S.$216.2 billion, driven by AI-linked products.
Non-oil imports surge 13.3% to U.S.$212.5 billion, with intermediate goods comprising 80.9%, highlighting limited domestic economic spillover from export strength.

Third-quarter trade balance and export mix

As reported by HR Ratings, Mexico’s accumulated seasonally adjusted trade balance posts a U.S.$4.7 billion surplus in the third quarter of 2026, compared with a U.S.$7.2 billion surplus in the immediately preceding quarter. The decline comes as non-oil intermediate goods imports advance more quickly, offsetting part of the gains from strong manufacturing exports over the past six months.

Within exports, the oil component shows a 14.8% quarterly drop, falling to U.S.$5.3 billion in the third quarter from U.S.$6.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026. HR Ratings links that shift to lower crude export volumes, estimated at 335,000 barrels per day in the third quarter versus 499,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, and to a lower average price for Mexico’s export blend, which declines to U.S.$82.3 per barrel from U.S.$86.

By contrast, non-oil exports rise 11.4% on the quarter to U.S.$226.9 billion, the highest level on record in the data cited. Manufacturing accounts for 95% of that total, with the sector expanding 12.1% to a quarterly flow of U.S.$216.2 billion, helped by products such as electronic equipment, devices and data centers tied to artificial intelligence investment.

High import content limits economic spillover

The increase in imports is driven by a 13.3% rise in the non-oil component, which reaches U.S.$212.5 billion in the third quarter of 2026 from U.S.$187.6 billion in the second quarter. That trend underscores how the external sector’s strength translates only partially into domestic activity because production depends heavily on imported inputs.

Imports of intermediate goods represent 80.9% at the close of the third quarter of 2026, a sign of low national value added in manufacturing exports. The data point to continued resilience in export flows from Mexico, but they also highlight a structural challenge for policymakers and industry, as stronger trade performance does not fully carry through to the wider economy when import intensity remains elevated.

In our earlier article on the surge in crude oil shipping costs, we covered how conflict-related risks on key tanker routes have driven freight and insurance rates sharply higher, making transport a much larger component of oil pricing. We also noted the uneven fallout for import-dependent markets and refiners, alongside a windfall for tanker owners, as rerouting and risk premiums keep logistics costs elevated.

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