Pakistan inflation eases to 9.6% in October as monthly price pressures persist

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Pakistan inflation October 2026

Highlights

Pakistan's headline inflation eased to 9.6% year on year in October 2026, down from 10.3% in September, with CPI rising 1.1% month on month.
Rural inflation reached 9.8% annualized in October 2026 while urban inflation registered 9.5%, and both saw persistent monthly price increases.
Finance ministry and brokerage projections for FY27 expect inflation to remain above 9% amid high global energy and food prices, complicating monetary policy.

October CPI data and inflation breakdown

As reported by Business Recorder, citing the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation stands at 9.6% year on year in October 2026, compared with 10.3% in September and 6.2% in October 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, the consumer price index increases by 1.1% in October, after rising 1.3% in the previous month and 1.7% a year earlier. During the first four months of FY27, CPI inflation stands at 10.05%, versus 4.79% in the same period last year.

Urban inflation increases by 9.5% year on year in October 2026, compared with 10.1% in September and 6.0% in October 2025. On a monthly basis, urban CPI rises 0.8%, against 1.3% in the previous month and 1.4% a year earlier.

Rural inflation increases by 9.8% year on year in October 2026, compared with 10.5% in September and 6.6% in October 2025. On a month-on-month basis, rural CPI rises 1.5%, compared with 1.2% in the previous month and 2.1% a year earlier.

Outlook for policy and household costs

Days earlier, Pakistan's finance ministry projects October inflation in a range of 9.5% to 10.5%, citing elevated energy and food prices in line with global trends. In its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for October 2026, the ministry says the inflation path remains sensitive to international energy prices, food supplies and base effects.

The ministry also says the ongoing FY27 recovery is expected to draw support from improving crop prospects, selected manufacturing industries, domestic construction activity and expanding external earnings. Even so, rising fuel and electricity costs are expected to keep price pressures high and complicate the central bank's policy outlook.

Brokerage estimates broadly align with the official reading. Topline Securities expects October CPI at 9.0% to 9.5% year on year and says average inflation could exceed 9% in FY27 if oil prices remain at U.S.$100 to U.S.$110 a barrel, compared with its earlier forecast of 8.5% to 9%, while Insight Securities projects a 9.3% reading for the month.

Our earlier article on Pakistan’s mid-October retail fuel price revision explained how the government again adjusted ex-depot rates—raising petrol while slightly cutting high-speed diesel—under its regular pricing mechanism. It also noted that these tweaks were tied to global oil-market moves and benchmark pricing components, underscoring how swings in energy costs can quickly filter into domestic prices.

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