Metaplanet and bitcoin: Euphoria is finally over

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Bitcoin and Metaplanet

Back to earth

The euphoria did not last long: from May to September, Metaplanet’s shares plunged nearly 60%, while the “premium to net asset value” (NAV) — a key metric for companies of this type — collapsed. Back in spring, the NAV multiple was 8.5; today it barely holds at 1.9.

Currently, Metaplanet holds about 20,000 BTC, making it the sixth-largest public company holder of bitcoin. Asset yields remain attractive at around 7.5%. But for investors, the key question is different: is it worth buying shares if the “added value” disappears? Without a NAV premium, the shares merely reflect bitcoin on the balance sheet, stripping away uniqueness — and with it, the company’s main business argument.

To turn things around, management, led by President Simon Gerovich, announced the issuance of up to $3.8 billion in preferred shares. This is an attempt to shore up capital and attract new investors without excessively diluting existing shareholders’ stakes.

The preferred shares are divided into two classes:

Class A — for conservative investors: no voting rights but a fixed income of about 5%.

Class B — a riskier option that offers the possibility of converting into common shares.

In Japan, where investors traditionally value reliability and fixed returns, this structure could find demand. Essentially, it resembles a quasi-bond: a tool offering predictable income at a relatively low cost of capital. The company emphasizes that the issuance volume will not exceed 25% of net bitcoin assets to mitigate risks of over-leveraging.

Still, concerns remain. The pace of BTC accumulation has slowed sharply: from over 90% monthly growth earlier to about 17% now. In addition, tax reform under discussion in Japan proposes lowering the crypto tax rate to a flat 20%. This makes holding the company’s shares less attractive compared to direct bitcoin ownership. Add the collapse of the NAV premium, and it becomes clear that investor confidence is under serious strain.

What shapes the situation

Today, Metaplanet’s future hinges on several key factors.

First, the issuance of preferred shares. If the company can raise $3–4 billion, it will be able to continue accumulating bitcoin reserves without imposing critical pressure on shareholders. But if demand is weak, Metaplanet could face a dead end: stock prices have already collapsed, the premium has vanished, and new capital sources are scarce.

Second, bitcoin’s own price dynamics. A BTC rally would reignite investor interest and automatically improve the company’s metrics. But if the cryptocurrency corrects downward, Metaplanet’s business model will once again be at risk.

Third, the regulatory backdrop. Looser tax policy would simplify life for retail investors but could eliminate the advantage Metaplanet’s shares once offered.

Finally, market trust. After a 60% stock plunge, many doubt whether the company can actually achieve its pledge to accumulate 210,000 BTC. Any delays or missteps will be viewed especially harshly.

Outlook: Japanese MicroStrategy or a bubble?

The Metaplanet story mirrors the contradictions of the crypto market itself. On the one hand, ambitious plans and rapid early growth. On the other, a sharp correction exposing weak points in the business model.

Comparisons with MicroStrategy are inevitable, but with a caveat: Michael Saylor’s firm has access to the massive U.S. market, cheap credit, and a vast institutional base. Metaplanet, by contrast, is constrained by strict Japanese regulators and far fewer opportunities for rapid scaling.

The coming months will show where Metaplanet is headed. If the preferred share issuance succeeds, the company can prove its strategy viable and secure its place as a “Japanese bitcoin giant.” If not, it will serve as a cautionary tale for anyone seeking to copy the MicroStrategy model without considering local conditions.

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