Nasdaq Composite stalls below 23,160 despite CPI-driven recovery from weekly low

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Nasdaq rebounds to 23,000 amid CPI boosts

Highlights

Nasdaq bounces from 22,700 as CPI miss revives short-term Fed rate cut bets
Index stalls below 23,160 resistance where 50 and 100 EMA cluster signals rejection risk
Consumer sentiment index today could drive breakout or spark renewed tech sector weakness

The midweek selloff was sparked by the fallout from a cancelled $10 billion data center project involving Oracle and OpenAI. Rising cost and margin concerns prompted investors to exit the deal, which cast doubts over the viability of the large-scale AI infrastructure investments. The sentiment spread across the tech sector, pulling down shares of all the Magnificent 7 and dragging the Nasdaq Composite below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing from the late November low at 21,900 to the early December peak at 23,700.

Nasdaq Composite price chart (Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

Thursday’s bounce erased most of the losses from Wednesday’s decline, pushing the index close to the recent intraday lower-high at 23,160 before closing at the 23,000 handle. While the rebound appeared strong, it failed to break key resistance and therefore did not alter the bearish trend structure that has defined price action since early December.

Nasdaq premarket rally vulnerable if sentiment index weighs on price movement

The sharp recovery was partly fuelled by softer inflation data. November’s core CPI slowed to 2.6% while headline CPI fell to 2.7%, both below expectations. These figures revived expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon pivot towards a more dovish stance. That sentiment has extended into Friday’s premarket rally, although the structure of the downtrend remains intact unless price breaks above 23,160.

Technical indicators on the 1-hour chart reinforce that level as critical resistance. Both the 50 and 100 EMAs are converging near 23,160, creating a zone that needs to be cleared before any bullish trend reversal can be confirmed. Failure to do so increases the risk that the current premarket gains could fade once the cash session opens.

Attention now turns to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December. A higher-than-expected reading could dampen Fed pivot hopes and trigger renewed selling in tech stocks. However, if the CPI-driven optimism holds, a breakout above 23,160 could spark further upside.

In recent analysis, we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite bounced 0.6% in premarket trading but stayed below key EMAs. CPI and jobless data were expected to guide direction as macro pressures weighed on sentiment.

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