Weekly forecast: Intel faces sell-off despite strong monthly stock rally

Weekly forecast: Intel faces sell-off despite strong monthly stock rally
Intel shares slide 17% after weak Q1 2026 forecast

Intel shares ended the week down 17% after gaining more than 28% over the past month. Investors reacted to a disappointing outlook for the first quarter of 2026 and potential supply chain issues that could prevent the company from meeting customer demand.

Intel closed 2025 with revenue of $52.9 billion, flat year over year, and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.12. Fourth-quarter revenue totaled $13.7 billion, down 4% compared to last year but above market expectations of $13.4 billion.

However, Intel’s revenue guidance for the new quarter fell short of expectations. The company forecasts Q1 2026 revenue of just $11.7–12.7 billion, below the analyst consensus, while adjusted EPS of $0.00 also disappointed investors compared with expectations of $0.08.

This year, Intel is expected to face manufacturing challenges and constrained component supply, particularly chips for AI servers. These concerns quickly weighed on market sentiment and triggered a sell-off, especially after the stock had surged 117% over the past six months.

Will there be positive news?

At the time of writing, INTC shares were trading above $45, remaining above key moving averages. The relative strength index (RSI) also stayed in bullish territory despite the sell-off. These factors suggest the stock could consolidate this week within a $42–$50 range.

INTС stock daily chart. Source: TradingView.

Investors may lock in profits following the weak guidance, but strong technical support near recent lows could prevent a deeper decline. Positive comments on chip orders or new contracts could boost buying activity, potentially allowing the stock to break above the $50 resistance level and rebound toward $54–$58.

On the other hand, increasing selling pressure could lead to a break below the $42 support level, pushing shares down to the $36–$40 range, where the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA) are located. In that scenario, Intel shares would likely consolidate within that zone.

As we wrote, Intel price drops — what’s behind today’s move (January 23)

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