Nvidia stock stabilizes at $189 amid Morgan Stanley defense of AI leadership

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Nvidia stock stabilizes

Highlights

Nvidia stock is trading below $190 despite strong AI sector momentum and improving fundamentals.
Morgan Stanley sees potential for over $9 in 2026 earnings per share, well above consensus estimates.
The upcoming earnings report and Vera Rubin platform launch are viewed as key catalysts for renewed upside.

From a technical standpoint, Nvidia has respected key support levels at $185, a zone where dip-buying has emerged in recent weeks. Should the stock fall below this support, the next downside levels to watch are $177 and $160, which coincide with previous breakout zones and rising 100-day moving averages. On the upside, resistance stands clearly at $212.19, the 52-week high. A confirmed breakout above that level could signal a new leg higher into uncharted territory.

Momentum indicators suggest cooling but not reversal. Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to neutral levels, indicating a lack of extreme buying or selling pressure. Volume has also declined in recent weeks, implying that traders are in wait-and-see mode. The short-term 20-day and 50-day moving averages are beginning to flatten, suggesting that the recent uptrend is losing velocity, though the longer-term 200-day moving average continues to rise steadily—an indication of a broader bullish structure still intact.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (November 2025 - January 2025). Source: TradingView

Overall, the technical setup points to a neutral-to-bullish bias: Nvidia remains in an uptrend on longer timeframes but needs renewed momentum to break through resistance. Investors should monitor the $185–$212 band closely, as a decisive move outside this range will likely dictate the next short-term trend.

Morgan Stanley sees Nvidia undervalued amid accelerating AI cycle

Morgan Stanley argues that Nvidia’s recent share weakness appears unjustified given the strength of near-term fundamentals. Analyst Joseph Moore noted that investors are increasingly questioning why the stock has lagged despite a “very robust AI environment,” especially after a weak close to 2025. One of the most common concerns on the Street now is what’s driving the pullback and how those overhangs will clear in 2026.

The bank emphasized that its industry checks remain strong — and are improving. Morgan Stanley is hearing growing references to Nvidia delivering over $9 per share in earnings this year, versus the current consensus of $7.75. This points to a high probability of near-term upside if the company’s upcoming earnings confirm the strength of AI-related demand and forward guidance.

At the same time, Morgan Stanley believes several headwinds weighing on sentiment are overstated. Broader participation in the AI boom, intensifying hardware demand, and Nvidia’s role in financing frontier model developers are all manageable factors, in the firm’s view. Concerns about rising competition from ASICs and AMD are also seen as exaggerated. A key catalyst, they say, will be the launch of the Vera Rubin platform, which should clearly demonstrate Nvidia’s leadership and help the stock climb what Moore calls a “wall of worry” toward renewed outperformance.

Short-term price outlook and scenarios

In the short term, Nvidia’s trajectory is likely to be shaped by its upcoming earnings report, scheduled for late February. Market participants will focus on data center revenue, forward guidance, and whether the company’s next-gen platforms are seeing early traction. Given the company’s central role in powering generative AI infrastructure, even modest outperformance in key segments could reignite institutional buying.

The bullish scenario sees Nvidia delivering an upside surprise on earnings, confirming Morgan Stanley’s $9/share view. If this materializes and forward guidance remains strong, NVDA could break above $212 resistance and advance toward $230–$250 in Q1, especially if AI capital expenditure trends continue rising. A decisive beat on gross margins or a ramp in Rubin platform adoption would likely serve as a strong upside catalyst.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company is awaiting final approval from Chinese regulators to sell its H200 AI chip in China. He confirmed the export license process is nearly complete and expressed hope for a positive decision.

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