Nvidia stock drops 1.4% as complex H200 chip talks with Trump administration drag on

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Highlights

Nvidia shares remain in a short-term corrective phase, with the stock trading below key moving averages and facing technical resistance near the $182–$185 area.
Negotiations with the Trump administration over H200 AI chip export licenses add policy uncertainty, as commercially viable terms have yet to be finalized.
In the near term, Nvidia is likely to trade range-bound, with downside risks limited by support near the 200-day moving average but upside constrained until regulatory clarity improves.

From a technical perspective, Nvidia shares remain under pressure following a pullback from recent highs above the $190 area. The stock is trading below its short-term moving averages, signaling fading bullish momentum. The 20-day moving average is currently near $184, while the 50-day moving average sits slightly lower around $182, both acting as immediate resistance zones. The fact that price action is holding below these levels suggests sellers remain in control in the near term.

The 200-day moving average, located near $168, remains a critical medium-term support level. As long as Nvidia holds above this zone, the broader uptrend that began last year remains technically intact. A daily close below $168 would mark a more serious trend deterioration and could open the door to a deeper correction toward the $155–$160 region.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (December 2025 - February 2026). Source: TradingView

Momentum indicators are mixed but lean cautious. The Relative Strength Index is hovering in the low 30s, approaching oversold territory but not yet signaling a confirmed reversal. This suggests downside momentum is slowing, though not exhausted. Volume has moderated during the recent decline, indicating the sell-off is corrective rather than panic-driven.

H200 export talks and U.S. regulatory constraints

Nvidia is continuing negotiations with the U.S. government over the licensing framework for exporting its H200 AI chips to Chinese companies. The core issue is no longer whether exports will be approved, but under what conditions they will be allowed. The Trump administration signaled roughly two weeks ago that it is prepared to grant a license enabling China’s ByteDance to purchase H200 chips, yet the final terms remain unresolved.

The main point of friction involves U.S. government requirements such as Know-Your-Customer procedures aimed at preventing Chinese military entities from gaining access to advanced AI hardware. Nvidia has stressed that it acts as an intermediary between U.S. regulators and end customers and cannot unilaterally accept or reject license conditions. The company has also clarified that KYC itself is not the central issue; rather, the concern lies in whether the overall conditions are commercially workable.

Nvidia has warned that overly restrictive or impractical licensing terms could ultimately disadvantage U.S. industry by pushing demand toward non-U.S. suppliers. From the policy side, expectations remain that exports of Nvidia’s H200 chips, as well as comparable AMD products, will eventually be permitted once national security concerns are sufficiently addressed, especially given President Donald Trump’s personal approval of these sales in principle.

Price prediction and scenarios

In the short term, Nvidia is likely to remain range-bound as markets await clarity on H200 export rules. The base-case scenario over the next two to four weeks sees the stock trading between $170 and $185. In this range, dips toward the $168–$172 area are likely to attract buyers, while rallies toward $185 may encounter selling pressure from short-term traders.

A bullish scenario would require a decisive break above $185, ideally supported by positive news on export approvals or a broader rebound in AI stocks. In that case, Nvidia could retest the $195–$200 zone, where stronger resistance is expected.

Uncertainty over U.S. approval of AI chip exports to China continues to weigh on Nvidia, as license reviews remain unresolved despite President Trump’s December sign-off. The prolonged process has delayed H200 orders, with Chinese customers waiting for clarity on national security conditions.

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