Nvidia stock slides 3.1% as U.S. security review delays China chip sales

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Dmytro Kharkov

04.02.2026

Nvidia stock slides 3.1% as U.S. security review delays China chip sales — Nvidia’s H200 AI chip sales to China remain in limbo

As of February 4, Nvidia stock is trading at $179.76, down 3.1% over the past 24 hours. The shares remain under pressure as investors react to renewed regulatory uncertainty around AI chip exports to China.

Nvidia shares remain locked in a corrective consolidation after failing to sustain gains above the $200 handle in January. At $179.76, the stock is trading firmly below its short-term trend indicators, reflecting a loss of upside momentum following months of outsized gains. From a technical perspective, the price is now sitting just above an important support band between $176 and $178, which has acted as a demand zone on several occasions since December.

The 50-day simple moving average is trending lower and currently sits near $188, reinforcing overhead resistance and capping rebound attempts. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average remains much lower near the $145–150 area, confirming that Nvidia is still in a broader long-term uptrend despite the recent pullback. The widening gap between the 50-day and 200-day averages suggests the stock is transitioning from a momentum-driven rally into a consolidation phase rather than entering a full trend reversal.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (December 2025 - February 2026). Source: TradingView

Momentum indicators point to weakening but not capitulating sentiment. The relative strength index has drifted toward the low-40s, indicating mild bearish pressure without oversold conditions. Volume during the recent decline has been elevated but not climactic, implying institutional selling is measured rather than aggressive. A daily close below $176 would expose the next technical support near $170, followed by a more critical level around $162, which aligns with the November breakout area.

China export delays revive regulatory risk for Nvidia

The immediate catalyst weighing on Nvidia is renewed uncertainty surrounding U.S. approvals for AI chip exports to China. Plans to resume large-scale sales of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips have been stalled for nearly two months, even after U.S. President Donald Trump approved exports in December. Washington is still reviewing license applications on national security grounds, prompting Chinese customers to delay placing orders until there is clarity on whether approvals will be granted and under what conditions.

China has historically been a key pillar of Nvidia’s data-center growth strategy, particularly for high-end AI accelerators. Following a December agreement reportedly brokered by CEO Jensen Huang, Nvidia ramped up production in anticipation of strong demand and a potential return to a market Huang has previously estimated at $50 billion annually. However, the prolonged interagency review has slowed implementation, with some suppliers now pausing production of critical components as uncertainty drags on.

This geopolitical overhang comes at a sensitive moment for Nvidia’s valuation. Despite the recent pullback, the stock remains priced for sustained leadership in AI infrastructure spending, making it vulnerable to negative regulatory headlines. The latest 3% daily decline reflects not only concerns about delayed Chinese revenue but also investor unease over the precedent such reviews set for future U.S. policy toward advanced semiconductors, reinforcing a higher risk premium in the near term.

Price scenarios point to range-bound trade with downside risk

In the base-case scenario, Nvidia is likely to remain range-bound over the coming weeks, oscillating between $176 support and $195 resistance. This scenario assumes no immediate resolution on China export approvals and stable broader equity market conditions. Volatility would remain elevated, but dips toward support are likely to attract longer-term buyers.

A bullish scenario would require concrete confirmation that U.S. authorities will approve H200 exports under workable conditions. In that case, Nvidia could rebound toward $200 quickly, with a follow-through move targeting $210–215 as sentiment improves and earnings expectations stabilize.

Morgan Stanley says Nvidia’s recent share weakness looks unjustified, citing strong and improving industry checks despite investor concerns over the stock’s underperformance in a robust AI environment. The bank sees potential upside as earnings could exceed $9 per share this year versus a $7.75 consensus if upcoming results confirm sustained AI demand.

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