RTX stock forecast for 2030: Global conflict fuels sustained missile production and $350 upside

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RTX Pentagon Munitions deals

Highlights

RTX trades at $212.85, hitting a new 52-week high today, up 4.5% on defense sector rally amid escalation.
Stock could reach $300-380 by 2030 if the $268B backlog converts at 1.56 book-to-bill and munitions production doubles.
RTX posts a record $268B backlog, $88.6B in sales with 11% organic growth, five Pentagon munitions deals, and a 1.56 book-to-bill.

Under the frameworks, RTX will increase annual production of Tomahawks to more than 1,000, AMRAAMs to at least 1,900, and SM-6 to more than 500. The up-to-seven-year agreements establish frameworks to build on previous investments to expand production.

RTX said the agreements are structured under a collaborative funding approach designed to preserve upfront free cash flow, signaling the company's free cash flow projections will not be negatively impacted by the increase in capital spending. AMRAAM production nearly doubled in 2025 from 2024. Now it ramps to at least 1,900 per year. Tomahawks go above 1,000 per year.

Record backlog and 1.56 book-to-bill

RTX announced its Q4 sales at $24.2 billion, reflecting a 12% increase compared to the previous year and a 14% rise organically. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) stood at $1.55. Operating cash flow was reported at $4.2 billion, while free cash flow reached $3.2 billion. The company's backlog hit $268 billion, which includes $161 billion in commercial orders and $107 billion in defense contracts.

For the full year of 2025, sales totaled $88.6 billion, marking a 10% increase from the prior year and an 11% organic growth. The adjusted EPS for the year was $6.29, also up by 10%. Free cash flow for the year was $7.9 billion, an increase of $3.4 billion compared to the previous year. By the end of 2025, RTX achieved a book-to-bill ratio of 1.56, indicating that for every dollar in sales delivered, the company secured $1.56 in new orders.

A $268 billion backlog at a company doing $88.6 billion in annual sales means roughly three years of revenue already in the order book before a single new contract is signed.

Three segments all accelerating

Pratt & Whitney posted Q4 sales of $9.5 billion, up 25% year over year. Growth was broad-based, with commercial OE up 28%, commercial aftermarket up 21%, and military sales up 30%. Full-year PW1100 GTF MRO output rose 26%, while aircraft-on-ground levels fell more than 20% from 2025 peaks. The company also announced a $200 million expansion of its Columbus, Georgia facility, expected to lift critical component output by 30% from 2028.

Collins Aerospace delivered $30.2 billion in full-year adjusted sales and $4.9 billion in operating profit, with margin expansion of 30 basis points. It secured a $438 million FAA contract for radar system upgrades.

Raytheon reported $40 billion in bookings, a 1.43 book-to-bill ratio, and a record $75 billion backlog. International mix rose to 47%.

For 2026, RTX guides for $92–$93 billion in adjusted sales and EPS of $6.60–$6.80, with free cash flow of $8.25–$8.75 billion. The quarterly dividend stands at $0.68 per share, yielding about 1.3% at $212.85.

Analyst Anton Kharitonov said, “A $268 billion backlog is not just visibility; it is leverage. When production lines for Tomahawk and AMRAAM move to sustained multi-year ramps under Pentagon frameworks, RTX shifts from a cyclical defense supplier to a capacity-constrained strategic asset. If execution stays clean, earnings power in 2030 will reflect throughput, not order flow.”

Recently, RTX broke out to $212.85 52-week highs after securing five Pentagon munitions framework agreements and posting a record $268 billion backlog with 1.56 book-to-bill, as investors priced in multi-year visibility on Tomahawk, AMRAAM, and SM-6 production ramps under collaborative government funding.

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