+0.53% for US Dollar vs South Korean Won — Risk aversion boosts safe-haven demand

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US dollar gains 0.53% vs Korean won

Highlights

Escalating Middle East tensions have triggered risk aversion, prompting investors to exit the Korean won for US dollar safety.
Increased safe-haven flows following Iran-Israel conflict have resulted in broad regional currency weakness and dollar strength.
Bullish momentum prevails for USD/KRW with overbought technical signals; price is expected to hold above support and potentially test ₩1,486.

Safe-haven demand rises on Middle East conflict escalation

On Wednesday, heightened risk aversion stemming from escalating Middle East conflict drives the move out of risk-sensitive assets such as the Korean won. Traders respond to missile and drone attacks involving Iran and Israel by seeking safe-haven assets like the US dollar. This has resulted in broader regional currency weakness and an uptick in demand for the greenback.

Overbought signals build as price outpaces mixed momentum

The USD/KRW rate at ₩1,469.49 is trading clearly above the MA-20 (₩1,445.55), MA-50 (₩1,452.55), and MA-200 (₩1,437.32). This structure confirms bullish momentum in the short, medium, and long term, with the Ichimoku Kijun at ₩1,462.19 now acting as immediate support. Momentum signals are mixed: daily MACD and ADX stay neutral, while RSI points toward buying strength and Commodity Channel Index indicates overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power is classified as overbought, underscoring firm buyer dominance intraday. The daily session opened higher (₩1,466.50 versus a previous close at ₩1,461.70), and the current price stands near today’s high in a range of ₩1,463.77–₩1,469.60, reflecting moderate volatility and sustained strength after the open. Oscillator readings diverge, as Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index flag overbought pressure despite the supporting tone from momentum.

Bullish breakout risk increases as support remains firm

Looking ahead, expect a weekly price range between roughly ₩1,462 and ₩1,486. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of a further price increase, with any significant decline considered much less likely. The baseline scenario envisions USD/KRW holding in a sideways corridor above support. A bullish scenario could see a breakout to fresh highs above ₩1,486 if buyer momentum persists, while a bearish scenario would materialize only if the pair slips below immediate support at the Ichimoku Kijun (₩1,462), which appears less likely given the current structure.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees USD/KRW supported by both technical strength and heightened risk aversion amid Middle East tensions. He believes the pair remains in a bullish posture above key moving averages, but overbought signals and mixed momentum warrant caution. The analyst maintains a defensive bias due to rapid inflows into the dollar and the risk of reversal if support fails. "Until ₩1,462 breaks decisively, upside remains favored — but I remain cautious given current overbought conditions."

Last time, analysts noted that USD/KRW remains in a bullish technical structure above key moving averages, but short-term oscillators signal overbought conditions while core momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX lack clear direction. Dynamic support lies near ₩1,462, with resistance near recent highs, suggesting room for consolidation as buyers face early selling pressure and mixed momentum persists.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.