Rio Tinto stock price forecast: Downtrend persists as RIO slumps beneath key averages

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Rio Tinto slides 3.85% to $6,913.00

Highlights

Rio Tinto and Western Australia will each invest in a A$1.1 billion desalination plant joint venture to secure Pilbara water supply.
The facility aims to reduce regional groundwater extraction, enhancing environmental and cultural site preservation while supporting industrial and community needs.
RIO trades under short-term selling pressure but within a medium-term uptrend; price expected in a $6,850–$7,150 range with elevated volatility and high probability of stabilization or rebound.

Desalination joint venture advances despite ongoing stock pressure

Rio Tinto and the Western Australian Government entered a 50:50 joint venture to complete both phases of the Dampier Seawater Desalination Plant. This A$1.1 billion project aims to reduce groundwater extraction in the Pilbara region and will be operated by Rio Tinto to strengthen regional water security and preserve environmental and cultural sites. The partnership builds on previous agreements focused on supporting industrial and community water needs, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum as technicals align at key support levels

Technically, RIO is trading below its 20-day moving average, above its 50-day, and well above its 200-day moving average. The current Ichimoku Kijun at $6,877.00 provides immediate support. Momentum readings are mixed — the daily MACD is at a strong buy, but ADX on D1 signals a sell with reduced trend strength. The RSI is neutral-to-positive at 54.58, CCI is neutral around zero, and the Stochastic RSI is in oversold territory, while Bull/Bear Power signals an overbought condition on D1 but shows intraday selling dominance.

Sideways bias as volatility bands frame breakout risks

For the next five sessions, the typical volatility band is expected between $6,850.00 and $7,150.00. There is a high probability (greater than 80%) of a move higher, though a pullback remains possible if support at $6,850.00 gives way. The baseline expectation is sideways movement as buyers and sellers reach a near-term balance. A breakout above $7,150.00 could resume upward momentum, while a drop below $6,850.00 would indicate sellers regaining short-term control.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Rio Tinto as holding up structurally in the medium and long term, but notes that the current price action signals caution. He remains skeptical given technical indecision and recent selling pressure despite the positive fundamental backdrop from the Dampier Desalination project. The analyst believes a neutral stance is warranted unless support at $6,850.00 fails. "Until we see either a clear breakout above $7,150.00 or a drop below $6,850.00, I prefer to stay on the sidelines."

Last time, analysts noted that Rio Tinto Group was trading below its 20-day moving average, reflecting short-term selling pressure, but remained well supported above its 50- and 200-day averages, indicating an intact medium- to long-term uptrend despite high intraday volatility. Technical indicators were mixed, with MACD maintaining bullish momentum while oscillators signaled caution, and support was identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level amid expectations for a sideways to slightly higher price movement within a confined range.

Source of Data: RIO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.