Bearish indicators and renewed partnerships weigh on Affirm stock

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Affirm slides 6.04% to $47.72 today

Highlights

Affirm reported 39% YoY gross merchandise volume growth and a 30% adjusted operating income margin, driven by renewed partnerships and new products.
Institutional interest increased as the Swiss National Bank boosted its Affirm stake by 60.7% in Q3 despite recent price weakness.
Bearish technical momentum dominates with Affirm trading below major moving averages; expected range is $45.00–$50.50, with limited rebound probability.

Partnership expansions and volume gains unable to offset market selling

On March 11, 2026, Affirm's CFO Rob O’Hare presented at the Wolfe FinTech Forum, reporting a 39% year-over-year growth in gross merchandise volume and a 30% adjusted operating income margin in the latest quarter. The company renewed key partnerships, including its ongoing collaboration with Amazon, and highlighted product developments such as the Affirm Card and 0% APR offerings, alongside efforts to enhance services with AI technologies and new banking features. In March 2026, Affirm and Stripe expanded their partnership to enable AI-powered BNPL transactions using Shared Payment Tokens, and the Swiss National Bank raised its Affirm stake by 291,500 shares in the third quarter, increasing its ownership by 60.7%, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish conviction as indicators reinforce downside momentum

Momentum indicators are strongly bearish, with MACD (D1) at a "Strong Sell" and ADX signaling a supportive sell trend. RSI is in "Sell" territory at 42.53, while Stoch RSI flags overbought but with most timeframes deeply oversold. The CCI reads neutral, and BBP registers oversold, showing sellers dominate intraday momentum. The Awesome Oscillator supports the bearish tone. Price declined sharply by 6.04% today, opening slightly lower than the previous close (no significant gap) and is now near the session’s low after high intraday volatility, reflecting persistent pressure since the open. Despite some conflicting oscillator signals, overall momentum aligns with the sustained bearish move.

Limited rebound odds as sellers dominate short-term scenarios

For the next 5 sessions, a normalized expected range is $45.00 to $50.50. The probability of a rebound is very low (less than 20%), while further downside is more likely given prevailing signals. Baseline scenario: price consolidates between $45.00 and $50.50 amid ongoing pressure. Bullish scenario: a break above $50.50 could trigger a short-term squeeze toward the $52.00 zone. Bearish scenario: a breach below $45.00 risks further decline, with sellers in control and little sign of reversal from the indicators.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Affirm’s strong fundamentals and institutional support amid persistent technical pressure. He notes that robust growth and new partnerships, along with expanded AI-driven features, reflect underlying business momentum. However, clear seller dominance and weak prices suggest limited near-term upside. Karapetjanc believes that the market will need a shift in sentiment or a technical catalyst to spark recovery. "Affirm’s story is fundamentally strong, and when macro sentiment turns, the shares could rebound quickly from these oversold levels."

Previously it was reported that Affirm Holdings, Inc. continues to face strong selling pressure, trading below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, as momentum indicators like the MACD and RSI reflect a bearish short- to medium-term trend. Technical signals highlight dominant seller activity and elevated intraday volatility, with limited signs of imminent reversal despite oversold conditions and notable transaction growth.

Source of Data: AFRM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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