Affirm stock: Intensified downside selling drives new lows below $45

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Affirm drops 5.85% today to $44.78

Highlights

Affirm increased FY2026 guidance on rising acquisition trends and margin expansion, pushing further into the buy now, pay later market, including rent payments.
Heightened exposure to subprime borrowers keeps loan loss allowance at 5.4–5.9%, with recent elevated redemption requests from a private credit fund holding Affirm loans.
Affirm trades below major moving averages amid strong bearish momentum, with next week’s expected range at $40.00–$49.50 and high probability of further downside.

Higher guidance and new partnerships as subprime loan risk rises

On March 17, 2026, Affirm raised its FY2026 guidance, with disclosed increases in acquisition trends and higher margins. The company expanded its buy now, pay later offerings to include rent payments, raising exposure to subprime borrowers and maintaining a loan loss allowance of 5.4–5.9%. Lowe's Companies partnered with Affirm to launch buy now, pay later options for online customers, while Integrated Investment Consultants LLC increased its holdings by 33.5% during the third quarter. There were also recent reports of elevated redemption requests at a private credit fund holding Affirm loans, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum persists as technical indicators confirm seller control

Technically, AFRM continues to face intense bearish conditions, as trading remains well below its SMA-20, SMA-50, and SMA-200, with the Ichimoku Kijun level at $52.94 acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators are negative, with MACD on strong sell, ADX confirming an active downward trend, and RSI at 38.40 along with Stoch RSI and CCI pointing toward oversold territory. Negative BBP readings and a gap down at the open further highlight dominant seller control in a high-volatility session.

Further declines likely as negative signals and volatility converge

In the coming week, AFRM is expected to trade within a volatility band of approximately $40.00 – $49.50, centered near current levels. Persistent negative signals from RSI, MACD, and the MA-50 on both daily and weekly charts suggest a very high probability of further downside, with little chance of a significant rebound. A close above $52.94 would be necessary to shift momentum toward a bullish scenario. More likely, a breakdown below $44.50 could expose support near $40.00, bringing additional downside risk.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes Affirm's fundamentals show promise thanks to recent guidance increases and new partnerships, but technical pressures remain severe. He sees current sentiment as negative, with high volatility and no clear recovery above key resistance levels yet. Macro developments—like loan exposure and redemption risks—add caution, though institutional activity suggests some long-term confidence. "If Affirm can reclaim $52.94, optimism could return quickly, but for now, the setup calls for patience and disciplined risk management."

Earlier, analysts noted that Affirm Holdings continued to exhibit sustained bearish momentum, with sellers maintaining control across multiple time frames. The latest developments reaffirm this negative outlook, making close attention to any decisive move below the $44.50 level crucial for traders monitoring potential downside risk.

Source of Data: AFRM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.