US Dollar vs Israeli Shekel price prediction: Will consolidation hold as USD/ILS climbs 0.98%

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US Dollar vs shekel up 0.98% today

Highlights

Central banks warn that the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict and Middle East war threaten to reignite global inflation, raising the risk of delayed rate cuts.
Energy prices remain sharply elevated, with Brent crude up over 40% due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the US to consider strategic oil releases and sanctions relief.
USD/ILS shows short-term bullish momentum within 3.1300 ₪ to 3.1500 ₪, but long-term technicals remain bearish, with higher probability for price declines if 3.1300 ₪ support breaks.

Inflation risk and policy shifts escalate on Middle East energy disruptions

US and allied central banks have warned that the ongoing Middle East war — specifically, the US-Israel-Iran conflict — risks reigniting inflation and delaying global interest rate cuts, with major central banks reconsidering policy in light of rising energy prices. Brent crude remains more than 40% higher than prior to the US-Israeli war on Iran, as the Strait of Hormuz faces major shipping disruptions, causing energy prices to surge. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that the United States is prepared to release additional oil from its strategic reserves and is considering easing restrictions on Iranian oil to help stabilize global supplies. Israeli government officials are tracking war expenditures nearing 1 billion shekels per day to inform budget and military strategy decisions.

Mixed momentum limits confirmation as short-term support meets volatility

Technically, USD/ILS trades above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, pointing to short-term bullishness, while staying below the 200-day average and highlighting persistent longer-term bearish bias. The Ichimoku Kijun (3.1095 ₪) acts as immediate support. Momentum readings are mixed: the daily MACD is in strong buy mode, but the ADX remains neutral, and both the RSI (50.1), Stoch RSI, and CCI are all neutral, showing the market is neither overbought nor oversold. BBP signals ongoing buy pressure, while the Awesome Oscillator provides no clear directional bias. The price is near session highs after strong volatility, though the mixed momentum indicators suggest the upward move is not yet fully confirmed by trend strength.

Narrow price corridor expected as bearish forces limit upside

In the near term, USD/ILS is likely to remain in a range between 3.1300 ₪ and 3.1500 ₪, consistent with typical volatility bands relative to current levels. A price increase above the 3.1500 ₪ resistance is unlikely, with less than a 20% probability, given persistent bearish signals on the weekly chart and weak W1 MACD and RSI. If the price falls below 3.1300 ₪, further declines could follow, especially if long-term selling pressure resumes. The baseline scenario sees prices consolidating in a narrow corridor as short-term bullish momentum contends with dominant longer-term bearish pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees limited near-term upside for USD/ILS despite the current technical bounce above the SMA-20 and SMA-50. He notes mixed momentum and overall long-term bearish pressure, reinforced by ongoing geopolitical risks and cautious central bank policy. Base case remains consolidation between 3.1300 ₪ and 3.1500 ₪, with a breakout above resistance unlikely while weekly momentum lags. "Unless USD/ILS can reclaim the 200-day average, I remain defensive and favor a neutral to bearish outlook."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/ILS was exhibiting mixed technical signals, with short-term bullish momentum contrasting with persistent longer-term bearish pressures and a lack of decisive directional bias. The latest developments, including renewed volatility amid heightened geopolitical risks and central bank actions, add weight to the view that ongoing consolidation within a narrow range remains the dominant scenario, and traders should monitor for any sustained breach above 3.1500 ₪ or below 3.1300 ₪ as a signal for the next major move.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.