LVMH stock up 1.3% despite RBC cutting target to €600, keeping Outperform rating

Highlights

LVMH shares are stabilizing after a previous decline. However, technical indicators confirm a downtrend with limited upside probability in the near term.
RBC cut its price target to €600 but maintains an outperform rating, citing slowing demand, currency headwinds, and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Short-term price action may show downside risks unless macro conditions and luxury demand show improvement.

RBC has reduced its price target on LVMH to €600 from €625, but an “outperform” rating still holds. This signals a more cautious near-term outlook without abandoning its constructive long-term stance. The bank expects first-quarter revenue of €18.57 billion. This implies flat organic growth but a 9% year-on-year decline on a reported basis due to negative currency effects. This combination implies the growing impact of external factors on headline performance.

For the full 2026 fiscal year, RBC’s base-case scenario points to a mild contraction in revenue of 0.6%. This is accompanied by a 1.6% increase in operating profit. The expected improvement in profitability is driven by modest margin expansion. This suggests that LVMH retains pricing power and cost discipline despite softer top-line dynamics. This divergence between revenue and profit growth underscores a transition phase. Efficiency gains partially offset slowing demand.

The bank also outlines downside risks tied to geopolitical exposure, particularly in the Middle East. This contributes around 6% of group sales. In a moderate stress scenario involving a 30% regional revenue decline, total annual sales could fall by 2.4% with limited margin erosion. Despite these risks and a 13% share price decline, RBC continues to view LVMH as a core long-term holding. Analysts cite its structural strengths and sector leadership.

Technical structure shows persistent downtrend

LVMH’s technical profile remains mostly bearish despite the latest growth. The stock has been trending lower within a well-defined descending channel. Successive lower highs confirm sustained selling pressure. The 50-day moving average continues to decline and remains below the 200-day moving average. This reinforces the longer-term negative trend.

Immediate support is now located at €450, a level that has held during recent pullbacks. A break below this threshold would likely cause accelerated downside toward €420, where historical demand previously emerged. On the upside, resistance is firm at €500. This is followed by a stronger barrier near €520 that coincides with prior consolidation zones.

LVMH stock price dynamics (January 2026 – March 2026). Source: TradingView.

Momentum indicators suggest limited recovery strength. The Relative Strength Index remains in the mid-40s. It shows that while the stock is no longer oversold, it lacks strong bullish momentum. Volume patterns also point to distribution. Heavier trading tends to occur during declines compared to rebounds. This imbalance confirms the fact that institutional investors are still reducing exposure to the asset.

Short-term outlook points to continued volatility

Looking ahead, LVMH is likely to remain under pressure in the near term. Price action is expected to stay within a €440–€500 range over the coming weeks. The base case scenario suggests continued consolidation near current levels. Moreover, a downward bias exists due to the high concentration of macroeconomic uncertainties.

In a bearish scenario, a break below €450 may open the path toward €420. A potential decline of approximately 10% from current levels is likely. This outcome may be caused by weakness in Chinese demand and earnings updates.

Morgan Stanley cut its price target on LVMH to €565 from €635 but preserved an Equalweight rating. signaling a more cautious near-term outlook. The revision reflects weaker expectations for early 2026 as first-quarter Fashion & Leather Goods sales now seen declining 1.5% year-over-year.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.