WTI Crude Oil price forecast: Holds above $91 as geopolitical risk underpins market
WTI is at $92 this morning, holding steady after the sharp liquidation selloff that took the price from $104 down to $84 in roughly 48 hours last week. The recovery has been gradual. Price has reclaimed the 20-period EMA and is pushing back toward the cluster of longer-term averages at $93.18. RSI has climbed back into the high 50s for the first time since the selloff began.
Highlights
- Price at $92, back above the 20-period EMA after bouncing off the $84 low.
- RSI at 58, signal line at 52. RSI is out in front, and both are heading higher.
- $91 to $91.81 holding as support. $93.11 to $93.18 is the resistance to watch.
The 20-period EMA at $91.31 flipped back to support after serving as resistance for most of last week. $91.81 is just above where the price is trading right now. Those 2 levels are the floor that the recovery is standing on. Above that, $93.11 and $93.18 are so close together they are essentially the same level, and that is where sellers have been waiting.
WTI Crude Oil price dynamics (March 2026). Source: TradingView.
$84 held on a single test, and the bounce since has been measured. No spike, just a steady, session-by-session grind higher since March 24. RSI at 58, with the signal line trailing at 52, is the best momentum reading since before the March 22 sell-off. The 2 short-term EMAs converging just below the current price give the recovery something to lean on.
Iran's rejection of U.S. peace plan keeps supply risk alive
Tehran's rejection of a U.S. peace plan on March 25 confirmed that the geopolitical situation is not resolving quickly. That keeps a floor under prices even as the initial risk premium from the March 7 spike drains out. The Strait of Hormuz remains a live concern. Any fresh escalation would push WTI back toward $100 faster than most positioning currently reflects.The technical structure shows a pause after rapid expansion
If WTI holds above $91.81 and pushes through the $93.11 to $93.18 resistance band, a move toward $96 to $98 becomes possible. A clean close above $93.18 would be the first signal that the broader recovery from the $84 lows has real momentum.On the downside, a break below $91.31 removes short-term EMA support and brings $88 back into focus. A sustained move below $88 would suggest that the geopolitical risk premium has fully unwound and that the market is heading back toward the pre-conflict range of $76 to $80.
In the previous analysis, WTI needed to hold above $90 to maintain the recovery structure. Price dipped briefly below that level on March 24 before bouncing quickly. The move back above $91 to $92 since then suggests the support zone has largely held.
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