Affirm stock drops as momentum signals remain bearish below all major averages

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Affirm slides 3.31% to $42.40 today

Highlights

SG Americas Securities LLC significantly increased its stake in Affirm, now holding 475,141 shares after a major fourth-quarter purchase.
Affirm is pursuing broader fintech growth, including banking license exploration and investments in AI-driven operational efficiencies amid partnership expansion.
Affirm shares remain under persistent selling pressure, trading well below key technical levels with a high probability of further decline toward the $40.00–$44.00 range.

Broader selling pressure persists amid increased institutional accumulation

SG Americas Securities LLC more than doubled its position in Affirm during the fourth quarter, now holding 475,141 shares after acquiring an additional 260,792 shares. The company has been expanding partnerships in pursuit of fintech growth, with plans to diversify further by exploring a banking license application and investing in AI-driven operational efficiencies. These developments were accompanied by a continued decline in share price, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum signals intensify while oversold readings emerge

Momentum signals remain decisively bearish, with MACD indicating a strong sell and ADX at 31.7 confirming an established downtrend. RSI (35.58), Stoch RSI (33.13), and CCI (–99.30) all signal the asset is approaching oversold territory, though BBP at –0.17 and an "Oversold" forecast highlight that sellers still dominate on the intraday level. AO does not reinforce the trend, currently holding a neutral view. The price is down 3.31% so far today, opening slightly below the previous close (no substantial gap), and currently trades near today's low within the session’s $42.51 – $43.84 range. Intraday volatility is moderate, with persistent selling pressure after the open supporting momentum signals, and no clear sign of reversal so far.

Downside bias maintained as low probability of upside persists

For the next five trading days, the expected range is $40.00 to $44.00, adjusted to reflect typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making a further decline the much more likely scenario. Baseline outlook sees consolidation within this sideways band. A bullish scenario would require a breakout above $47.82, shifting momentum to the upside, while a break below $40.00 could lead to a deeper pullback as downside pressure remains elevated.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Trading Expert at Traders Union, sees Affirm's fundamentals trending in the right direction, with major institutional activity and ongoing diversification of its fintech model. Despite strategic progress, the price remains under pressure and momentum is still firmly negative. The analyst believes downside risk dominates unless $47.82 is reclaimed, but notes emerging oversold signals and possible support approaching $40.00. He expects volatility to remain contained as the stock seeks a floor, while noting that broader sentiment could quickly turn if resistance breaks. "While short-term momentum is against buyers, I remain optimistic on Affirm’s long-term prospects given growing institutional confidence and ongoing fintech innovation — but I want a strong move above $47.82 before turning positive on the chart."

Earlier, analysts noted that Affirm Holdings was experiencing broad-based bearish momentum driven by weak technical signals and consistent selling pressure. The current price action not only reinforces this negative outlook but also raises the risk of a deeper pullback if support at $40.00 fails to hold in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: AFRM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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