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Oil slips below $100 as U.S.-Iran pause cools tensions
Oil prices dropped sharply below $100 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week suspension of attacks on Iran. The move marked an unexpected shift following previously aggressive rhetoric and threats of further escalation.
According to CNBC, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures plunged more than 14–16%, falling to $94–97 per barrel. The international benchmark Brent also lost more than 12–15%, declining to around $92–95. This marked one of the sharpest short-term drops driven by geopolitical developments.
Signals of de-escalation
The sell-off was triggered by Trump’s statement that the U.S. is ready to pause attacks for two weeks if Tehran ensures the “complete, immediate, and safe” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the president, Washington has received a 10-point proposal from Iran that could serve as a basis for negotiations.
At the same time, this remains a statement from Trump rather than a confirmed, mutually agreed ceasefire. Iran has not formally declared a bilateral end to hostilities, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is prepared to ensure safe passage through the strait during the two-week period — in coordination with its armed forces and subject to technical limitations. He also stated that if attacks on Iran stop, Iranian forces will halt their defensive operations.
Market recovery
Expectations of reduced risks to oil supply were the main driver behind the sharp decline in prices. Before the escalation, around 20% of global oil supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and there are now hopes that flows could resume.
At the same time, risk appetite returned to U.S. equity markets. Dow Jones futures jumped by more than 1,000 points, S&P 500 futures rose over 2.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained around 3.2%. Investors interpreted Trump’s statement as a sign of at least temporary easing in tensions.
What triggered the conflict
The conflict escalated sharply after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in late February following strikes by the U.S. and Israel. This became a turning point, with Tehran viewing the attack as a direct act of war and vowing a strong response. Shortly afterward, Iran launched missile strikes across the region, including targets in neighboring countries, significantly escalating the situation and drawing multiple states into the crisis.
The next step was the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route for global oil trade. Iran began targeting commercial vessels and restricting tanker traffic, causing the largest disruption to oil supplies in recent years. As a result, oil prices surged, with markets pricing in the risk of a global fuel shortage and further escalation.
Earlier, we reported that if military actions in Iran do not stop, oil prices could rise to as much as $200 per barrel.
This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.
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