+0.75% for Gold as central bank buying supports prices

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Gold climbs 0.75% today to $4,776.23

Highlights

Central banks, notably in Poland and China, are set to drive gold purchases to an estimated 850 tons in 2026.
Continued official buying and geopolitical instability in the Middle East have supported gold’s third consecutive weekly gain.
Gold is expected to consolidate in a $4,600–$4,850 range, with overbought momentum suggesting high odds of further upside unless profit-taking emerges.

Central bank buying sustains rally as geopolitical risks drive flows

Central banks, including those of Poland and China, have continued to increase gold reserves in 2026, with official central-bank gold purchases for the year expected to reach around 850 tons. Recent weeks have seen gold record a third consecutive weekly gain, supported by ongoing central bank buying and persistent geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. The metal has also experienced sideways consolidation, with renewed downside technical pressure tied to retests of support levels near $4,700.

Overbought signals diverge from neutral momentum as price volatility rises

D1 momentum is mixed for XAU, as MACD remains neutral and ADX signals a sell, reflecting some hesitation in the trend direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays in buy territory, while Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) both flag overbought conditions and indicate strong buyer dominance; CCI is positive and further supports the case for gains. In today’s session, XAU trades near its daily high after a modest gap at the open, with high intraday volatility and evident upward strength. Overbought signals and a neutral MACD highlight a disconnect between strong intraday buying and a more cautious stance from momentum oscillators.

Bullish bias prevails as momentum signals support upside risk

For the next five trading days, XAU is expected to trade within a volatility band relative to current levels of $4,600 to $4,850. There is a very high probability, exceeding 80%, that the price will increase based on D1 and W1 momentum and trend signals, making a decrease less likely. The baseline outlook is for sideways movement within this band, while a bullish scenario could see XAU break above $4,850 if upward momentum persists. Conversely, a bearish scenario would unfold if overbought readings lead to profit-taking, pushing the price below $4,600.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees continued institutional gold demand and persistent geopolitical risks as strong backdrops for XAU. He believes support above $4,600 and central bank buying set the stage for further gains. The analyst notes mixed technical signals but maintains a constructive view. Near-term price swings are likely, yet the base case remains bullish while momentum holds. "If the price stays above $4,600, I expect gold to challenge $4,850 with upside momentum supported by global fundamentals."

Earlier, analysts noted that geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures had shifted the probability of further upside for gold. The latest surge in central bank purchases and robust intraday momentum further reinforce this view, making any sustained move above the $4,850 resistance a critical signal for renewed bullish action.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.