Shell stock price forecast: £3,300 support in focus as SHEL drops 2.35%

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Shell drops 2.35% to GBX 3,389.50

Highlights

Shell continues its $3.5 billion buyback program with 726,100 shares acquired, reinforcing capital returns ahead of Q1 earnings.
Despite strong trading and refining margins, Shell expects a $10–15 billion working capital outflow and a $3–4 billion net debt rise for the quarter.
Shares face short-term selling pressure but medium- and long-term technicals remain bullish, with price expected between GBX 3,300 and GBX 3,525.

Buyback activity and resilient margins as net debt rises

On April 13, 2026, Shell was engaged in its $3.5 billion share buyback program, acquiring 726,100 shares for cancellation as part of its ongoing capital return efforts. The current program, managed by Morgan Stanley since February 5 and set to conclude on May 1, is expected to be succeeded by a new initiative alongside Shell's upcoming Q1 results. Preliminary company updates indicate strong trading and refining margins, while lower gas production was reported due to disruptions in Qatar and Shell projected a working capital outflow of $10–15 billion for the quarter along with a $3–4 billion increase in net debt from variable ship leasing costs, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bullish long-term structure amid short-term downside signals

On the technical side, SHEL closed below its MA-20, pointing to heightened short-term selling pressure. The price remains above both the MA-50 and MA-200, keeping the medium- and long-term trend positive. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily timeframe sits at GBX 3,325.50, marking immediate nearby support. Key oscillators present a mixed picture: the D1 MACD is firmly in “Strong Buy” territory, the ADX at 29.46 shows robust momentum, daily RSI at 56.8 is in the neutral-to-bullish range, while Stoch RSI is deeply oversold and CCI registers as neutral. BBP reflects an intraday overbought condition, indicating continued buyer dominance, but shorter-term signals suggest downside momentum with the Awesome Oscillator remaining neutral. Price opened lower and is near the day's low after a volatile session down 2.35%, showing divergence among short-term momentum indicators and a contest between underlying bullish structure and near-term bearish sentiment.

High probability of upward move as consolidation persists

Over the next five trading days, price is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between GBX 3,300 and GBX 3,525. With three out of four weekly indicators (RSI, MACD, MA-50) showing a 'Buy' signal, the likelihood of an upward move is high (over 80%). The central scenario anticipates consolidation in a sideways range, anchored by support at GBX 3,325 and resistance at GBX 3,525. A bullish breakout through GBX 3,525 remains possible if weekly trends persist, while a drop below GBX 3,325 could trigger a deeper pullback, though the structure still supports medium- and long-term bullish prospects.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Shell plc showing technical resilience despite short-term selling pressure. He notes defensive trading dominates for now as the price remains below the MA-20 and faces sentiment headwinds from recent sector news and operational disruptions. Medium- and long-term trends still favor bulls, but the analyst is watching for a clear break above GBX 3,525 or a drop below GBX 3,325 before making any directional calls. "Until Shell decisively reclaims GBX 3,525, I remain cautious and prefer to wait for clearer price action confirmation."

Earlier, analysts noted that Shell maintained a broadly bullish medium- to long-term trend despite intermittent short-term selling pressure. The latest technical setup—marked by a continued positive backdrop on weekly indicators—suggests that traders should watch for a potential bullish breakout above GBX 3,525, with near-term volatility presenting both opportunity and elevated risk around this level.

Source of Data: SHEL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.