0.91% for Silver as US-China tensions fuel macroeconomic uncertainty

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Silver rises 0.91% to $79.68 today

Highlights

Silver surged to $81 amid heightened geopolitical risk from US-NATO tensions, US-China diplomacy, and new global tariffs.
The Silver Institute reports a sixth consecutive structural deficit in the market, with 762 million troy ounces drawn since 2021, intensifying liquidity risks.
Technical signals are bullish with strong price momentum and expectation for continued gains, targeting a $76.00 to $83.50 trading range.

Liquidity squeeze risk as geopolitical tensions and deficits converge

On Wednesday, silver reached $81 as escalating tensions from US President Trump's intensified confrontations with NATO allies and diplomatic overtures toward China increased macroeconomic uncertainty. Also on Wednesday, the Silver Institute and consultancy Metals Focus reported that the silver market is experiencing its sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces withdrawn from stocks since 2021, raising the risk of a renewed liquidity squeeze. Ongoing conflict involving Iran and new global tariffs have heightened risk for rate setters, with Federal Reserve officials warning of compounded dangers from these geopolitical disruptions and resulting inflationary pressures.

Bullish momentum meets overextension as mixed indicators diverge

Momentum indicators are giving mixed signals: MACD on D1 is neutral while ADX on D1 shows seller momentum, whereas the RSI reads 60.02 (bullish), but Stoch RSI and CCI both flag overbought conditions. BBP is signaling buyers are in control intraday, though this is accompanied by signs of overextension and potential reversals. The Awesome Oscillator supports the prevailing positive momentum. Today's price action opened with a significant gap higher, the current price is hovering toward the lower half of the day’s range, intraday volatility is moderate, and there has been some pressure after the open. This divergence in momentum and oscillator signals highlights both bullish energy and short-term exhaustion.

Upside favored as volatility fuels a high-probability consolidation

For the next five trading days, a normalized expected range is $76.00 to $83.50, centering the forecast around the current price to reflect recent strong volatility. Based on all weekly indicators being bullish (MA-50, RSI, MACD, and ADX), there is a very high probability (more than 80%) that Silver will rise, making a decline far less likely. Baseline scenario: price consolidates in a wide sideways corridor above support. Bullish scenario: price breaks above the recent highs toward $83.50 on renewed buying. Bearish scenario: price drops below the $76.00 support if profit-taking accelerates amid overbought signals.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the silver market supported by strong fundamentals and ongoing macro turmoil. He believes the sixth consecutive year of deficit and rising geopolitical risk are fueling bullish sentiment, with technicals confirming the uptrend. Short-term signals are mixed, but momentum and structural supply constraints remain dominant themes. He expects consolidation above support, with a probable move toward $83.50 if buyers persist. "Given the persistent deficits, increased geopolitical tension, and bullish technical structure, I expect silver to remain in a strong position over the next week," says Karapetjanc.

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was exhibiting broad bullish momentum amid heightened geopolitical risks and persistent supply concerns. The current outlook strengthens this view with confirmation of sustained bullish trend signals, indicating that traders should monitor for potential breakouts above $83.50 as renewed demand meets diminishing inventories.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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