Gold trades flat as weaker US dollar supports demand

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Gold rises 0.25% to $4,801.46 today

Highlights

The Indian government extended gold and silver import authorizations for major banks through March 2029, alleviating recent supply disruptions at customs.
Indian gold demand surged through ETFs after prior import licenses expired, while external drivers include a weaker US dollar, lower US yields, and geopolitical risk.
Gold is positioned in a bullish structure with expected consolidation between $4,700 and $4,900, but overbought signals suggest risk of brief pullbacks.

Bank import approvals and ETF demand reshape sentiment after customs delays

On April 17, 2026, the Indian government updated its list of banks authorized to import gold and silver, granting permission to major banks such as SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Bank of India to import both metals under new norms effective through March 2029. Previously, the expiration of prior authorizations on March 31, 2026, caused over 5 tonnes of gold to be held at customs and drove increased demand for gold via exchange-traded funds. Additional influences on Gold come from a weakening US dollar, lower US Treasury yields, and ongoing attention to US-Iran geopolitical developments and upcoming central bank policy decisions.

Firmer price action as oscillators caution on overbought conditions

Gold is trading at $4,801.46, above both the MA-20 ($4,697.30) and MA-200 ($4,505.39), but slightly below the MA-50 ($4,839.05). This positioning points to a supportive short- and long-term structure, with some medium-term resistance lingering. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $4,487.20, below the current price, indicating immediate support. Momentum signals are mixed, with the MACD on D1 showing a neutral stance while ADX D1 flags a mild "sell." Both RSI (55.00) and CCI (101.50) are trending higher, but CCI and Stoch RSI highlight mildly overbought conditions. BBP shows strong buyer dominance in the intraday context. The daily session opened slightly higher than the previous close, signaling a minor gap up, and the price currently stands near the upper end of today's range. Intraday volatility is moderate, and market tone favors strength toward session highs. Some divergence is present as oscillators show overbought readings even as momentum signals waver, creating a slightly cautious backdrop despite the firmer bias.

High consolidation odds as bullish bias persists within volatility band

Looking ahead over the next five trading days, the typical volatility band for gold is expected between $4,700 and $4,900. The likelihood of a price increase is very high (over 80%), with downside moves less probable. The baseline scenario is for price consolidation within this range, though a breakout above $4,900 could open the path for fresh highs if buyer momentum endures. Alternatively, a drop below $4,700 may prompt a corrective phase as overbought signals relax, but the higher time frame technicals continue to favor a bullish bias.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees gold supported by robust fundamentals and macro tailwinds. He notes that recent regulatory clarity from India, combined with a softer US dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions, improves demand dynamics. The analyst believes overbought technical signals warrant monitoring but do not outweigh the constructive backdrop. In his view, gold remains well bid above $4,700 and poised for further gains. "Barring a sharp reversal, I see consolidation as a launchpad for new highs if buyer conviction holds above $4,700."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold maintained a bullish longer-term structure despite ongoing geopolitical volatility and central bank actions. New regulatory developments in India and persistent overbought signals now underscore the importance of monitoring whether gold can decisively clear the $4,900 resistance level, as a successful breakout could shift the trading landscape firmly in favor of further upside.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.