Geopolitical events remain the main catalyst for volatility in the natural gas market.
Any news related to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—through which a significant portion of global LNG volume passes—instantly reflects on quotes. Even a hint of escalation provokes a sharp rise in prices, especially in Europe (TTF), while signals of de-escalation lead to pullbacks. The market is essentially trading headlines.
The European Union continues to actively import liquefied natural gas from the USA, as internal supply stability remains in question. This makes TTF vulnerable: any disruption in U.S. logistics or production triggers an immediate price surge. As a result, the European market retains a nervously bullish character.
The situation in the USA is the opposite: gas inventories are at high levels, production is stable and strong, and seasonal demand is weak (spring period). Henry Hub prices have been falling for several sessions in a row, updating monthly lows. This creates fundamental downward pressure on the U.S. market.
The spring season is characterized by weak demand: neither heating nor air conditioning periods are active. Weather updates now dominate over macroeconomic factors, determining short-term price movements, while Europe's gas injections into storage provide some support to quotes.
The USA is ramping up LNG exports amid growing global demand, turning gas into a full-fledged global commodity akin to oil. This is the key theme of 2026, underscoring the long-term growth potential.
In yesterday's trading session, natural gas quotes initially maintained a positive tone, but their rise, as expected, encountered selling interest. Thus, after testing resistance around $2.76, quotes retreated to support at $2.70, where they are trading at the moment. The long-term downtrend remains in force; breaking the current support, bears could test the $2.66-2.64 area, where moderate buying is possible.
News from the Middle East, as well as comments from Donald Trump, remain the primary triggers for volatility in the energy resources market.
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