Henry Hub futures oscillate in a tight $2.57–2.40/MMBtu range, showing resilience to Iran geopolitical shocks thanks to record inventories and seasonal lull; EU steadily refills storage without surprises, though upside to the range top was sold again, with quotes now retesting support.
Volatility has bottomed out: 11.8% monthly drop despite oil +30% from Hormuz highlights market oversupply, where news fails to spark rallies.
US storage injections +103 Bcf for the week (April 17) pushed totals to ~3 Tcf (+5% YoY, +0.8% vs 5-year avg), keeping pressure on prices.
European TTF at 45 EUR/MWh (+2% daily, -14% MoM) reflects UGS fill at ~30–40% (80% target by November per ENTSOG), easing winter risks without growth catalyst.
Neutral weather curbs power and heating demand; EIA forecasts $3.76/MMBtu average for 2026 (+6% YoY), but spring doldrums persist.
Natgas has evolved into a pure balance-sheet market: surplus + weak demand locks in $2.45–2.80 range until heatwaves or disruptions (low odds). Downside bias holds into summer; watch EIA storage given your natgas and geopolitics focus.
Key Metrics (April 2026):Henry Hub: $2.57/MMBtu (-1.75%)US Storage: +103 Bcf (above norm)TTF EU: 45.46 EUR/MWh (-14% MoM)Weather: Neutral (minimal demand)
Outlook remains negative at this stage.
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