Gold price forecast: $4,547 support in focus as XAU drops 1.96%

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Gold drops 1.96% today to $4,589.89

Highlights

Closure of the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US-Iran negotiations are disrupting global energy supplies, elevating inflation risks, and raising expectations for higher interest rates.
US Mint's use of cartel-sourced and illegal foreign gold exposes regulatory lapses and heightens legal and reputational risks for global gold markets.
Gold trades below key moving averages with mixed momentum signals, and is expected to remain volatile between $4,500 and $4,800 over the next week.

Energy supply disruptions drive inflation risk amid geopolitical standoff

The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz for nearly two months, disrupting global energy shipments and fueling inflation concerns. Proposals from Iran to reopen the Strait in exchange for postponing nuclear negotiations have been rejected by the US, prolonging the blockade and its economic shock. High inflation and the energy-supply crisis have increased expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will maintain or raise interest rates, creating a headwind for gold as a non-yielding asset. Persistent diplomatic deadlock continues to elevate geopolitical and macroeconomic risks around gold markets. Separately, revelations that the US Mint has sourced gold from cartel-controlled and illegal foreign mines, blending it with domestic supply, expose regulatory failures and complicate legal and reputational risks for gold in the global market.

Bearish momentum strengthens as resistance holds above long-term average

Gold is trading below MA-20 ($4,747.78) and MA-50 ($4,756.91), while remaining above MA-200 ($4,547.94). The Ichimoku Kijun level at $4,685.41 stands as immediate resistance. Momentum signals are mixed with a neutral MACD on the daily chart and weak selling pressure reflected by ADX at 27.19. Both RSI at 45.26 and CCI at -84.89 indicate downside momentum, though Stoch RSI points to oversold conditions. BBP supports seller dominance for the session, consistent with recent intraday declines and high volatility near session lows. Oscillators reflect ongoing caution as some suggest oversold levels while others confirm continued selling pressure.

High rebound probability as gold trades within volatile range

For the next five trading days, XAU is expected to fluctuate between $4,500 and $4,800, which reflects a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a rebound is very high (above 80%), making further decline less likely in the short term. The base case scenario sees gold remaining constrained between immediate resistance and long-term support in a sideways range. A sustained move above $4,685 would open a path toward the upper boundary, while a close below $4,547 could trigger deeper losses despite continued positive signals from weekly timeframes.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees gold as currently pressured by geopolitical risks and the macroeconomic environment. He believes the mix of inflationary fears and disrupted trade flows is fueling market volatility, but downside momentum is likely limited. Technicals show gold is oversold in the short term, with a high chance for a rebound if support holds. "The ongoing US-Iran standoff and regulatory revelations increase risks, but current levels could offer a constructive setup for patient buyers if gold stays above $4,547 on a closing basis."

Earlier, analysts noted that heightened downside momentum and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty were keeping gold under pressure as traders focused on central bank policy and geopolitical risks. The current environment builds on this outlook by introducing new regulatory and reputational factors tied to gold sourcing, suggesting that any sustained directional move will likely hinge on both global policy outcomes and further developments in commodity market oversight.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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