Microsoft remains vulnerable, but pullbacks may attract buyers

Microsoft remains vulnerable, but pullbacks may attract buyers
MSFT

​The Microsoft Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings report confirmed sustained high growth rates: revenue reached $82.9 billion (+18% YoY), with Azure accelerating to 40% growth. Despite confidently beating EPS expectations ($4.27), the market reaction remained muted. The primary reason was the confirmation of massive capital expenditures (Capex) totaling $190 billion for the 2026 calendar year to expand AI infrastructure, raising investor concerns about payback timelines and pressure on operating margins.

The market has fundamentally shifted its approach to valuing Big Tech: previously, any revenue growth was met with optimism, but now investors are highly selective, demanding proof of high profitability in AI initiatives. While Azure remains the "gold standard" in cloud solutions, escalating costs for infrastructure and components (including specialized hardware) amid intensifying competition from Google and Amazon are weighing on the stock. Microsoft is viewed as an "asset under expectation pressure," where long-term potential (AI solutions ARR exceeding $37 billion) clashes with short-term uncertainty over capital efficiency.

In the medium term, the stock is likely to remain in consolidation as the market digests the aggressive scaling strategy. A breakout awaits acceleration in Copilot monetization and signs of margin normalization. Despite skepticism, Microsoft stays among the top AI transformation beneficiaries, and any pullback amid stable cloud growth could serve as an entry point for long-term positions.

Ignoring strong metrics, the stock price faced selling pressure, testing support around the $400 level before rebounding to resistance at $416. Bulls' failure to break above $432 resistance could trigger a deeper correction, but further downside may continue to attract fresh buying interest.

As we wrote last Thursday, Microsoft is under pressure despite strong earnings report, and no improvement is observed yet.

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