MercadoLibre stock price forecast: $1,640 support in focus as MELI drops 10.50%

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MercadoLibre drops 10.5% to $1,673.58

Highlights

MercadoLibre's Q1 2026 revenue surged 49% to $8.8 billion, driven by robust marketplace and fintech growth, topping analyst expectations.
Diluted EPS missed forecasts, falling to $8.23 as Brazilian expansion and logistics investments accelerated margin compression amid heavy selling by major shareholder WCM.
MELI stock is trading below key moving averages with elevated volatility, pointing to a prevailing bearish trend and a likely range of $1,640–$1,725 in the near term.

Earnings miss and stake reduction drive negative sentiment shift

MercadoLibre reported its Q1 2026 results, posting a 49% year-over-year revenue increase to $8.8 billion and exceeding market expectations, underpinned by strong gains in gross merchandise and payment volumes. However, diluted earnings per share fell to $8.23 from $9.74 a year earlier and missed consensus estimates, as ongoing logistics and consumer offering investments, particularly in Brazil, contributed to continued margin compression. Additionally, WCM Investment Management significantly reduced its stake in the company, selling shares totaling about $940 million, which has coincided with increased pressure on the stock.

Technical momentum weakens amid breach of key support levels

MELI is currently trading below the SMA-20 at $1,830.46, SMA-50 at $1,759.39, and SMA-200 at $2,081.80. The Ichimoku Kijun level on the daily chart sits at $1,797.46, serving as an immediate resistance area. On the momentum front, the daily MACD remains positive, while a low ADX of 13.75 highlights weak trend strength. D1 RSI remains in buy territory at 58.08, but both CCI and Stoch RSI indicate overbought conditions, aligning with BBP readings that suggest prior buyer dominance before the recent reversal. The Awesome Oscillator is still in buy mode, but the pronounced drop, opening gap down from $1,870.01 to $1,680.00, and persistent trade near intraday lows underscore strong selling pressure and heightened volatility.

Limited rebound potential as volatility shapes downside risk

Looking ahead to the next five trading days, typical volatility suggests a probable price range between $1,640 and $1,725. The probability of a sustained upward move is low, estimated below 20%, making further near-term declines more likely. Baseline expectations point to choppy, sideways trading within this volatility band. Should MELI manage to rebound above the $1,797.46 resistance, short-term upside efforts could target the upper end of this range, while a fall below $1,640 may expose the stock to increased downward momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Analyst at Traders Union, notes that MercadoLibre delivered exceptional revenue growth and operational strength, but rising costs are eroding earnings quality. He believes investor sentiment has turned more cautious after a major institutional sell-off, with technicals reinforcing near-term downside risk. Macro and fundamental drivers remain supportive for longer-term growth, but the short-term outlook is clouded by volatility and profit margin pressures. 'I see the current weakness as an opportunity for patient investors, provided MELI holds support in the $1,640–$1,725 range and investment in platform expansion continues to pay off,' Karapetjanc says.

Earlier, analysts noted that MercadoLibre was experiencing persistent selling pressure and a prevailing bearish technical outlook. The current sharp drop—despite strong revenue growth—reinforces this negative theme, and near-term traders should monitor for renewed volatility and potential downside acceleration should the stock break below the $1,640 threshold.

Source of Data: MELI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.