U.S. cities face broad drop in Canadian visits as Trump trade policies weigh on travel

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U.S. cities see fewer Canadian visits

Highlights

University of Toronto study using cell phone data shows an average 42% year-over-year decline in Canadian visits to 267 U.S. cities, steeper than border data.
Major business hubs like New York, San Francisco, and Houston post steep drops in Canadian business travel as tariffs and economic uncertainty disrupt cross-border corporate activity.
Only three of 267 analyzed cities report a year-over-year increase in Canadian visits, with mid-sized cities tied to the auto sector, such as Grand Rapids, showing sharp declines linked to tariff policy.

Cell phone analysis expands scope of travel slowdown

As first reported by Business Insider, a new analysis from the University of Toronto's School of Cities uses cell phone data to track Canadian travel patterns across 267 U.S. cities. The researchers, Karen Chapple, Yihoi Jung, and Jeff Allen, find an average year-over-year decline of about 42% in Canadian visits, a drop notably steeper than the 25% decrease previously estimated from border-crossing data.

The study suggests the weakness is not limited to leisure destinations. While places such as Las Vegas and Orlando register lower visitation that can be linked to softer tourism demand, large commercial centers including New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas, and Houston also post significant declines.

Chapple says the pattern points to fewer technology and finance workers making cross-border business trips. The researchers also highlight mid-sized cities such as Grand Rapids and Flint, Michigan, where automotive industry links with Ontario appear to be under pressure as tariff policy shifts complicate commercial relationships.

Business hubs and regional ties show strain

The findings indicate that broader Canada-U.S. economic connections are coming under strain, particularly in sectors tied to corporate travel and integrated supply chains. The researchers write that high-tech and financial centers such as San Francisco and Houston appear to be losing not only tourists but also business-related travelers amid wider economic uncertainty on both sides of the border.

Grand Rapids stands out in the analysis because of its close ties to Ontario's auto industry, and the study says tariffs likely contribute to its sharp decline in Canadian visitation. Across all 267 cities in the sample, only three record an increase in Canadian visits compared with the previous year.

The data also shows the latest downturn follows a slow recovery period after the COVID-19 pandemic. Canadian visits take roughly three years to largely recover from the earlier collapse, and the researchers say it remains too early to determine how long the current drop will persist.

Our earlier report on South Jersey Transportation Authority’s toll-backed bonds explained how post-pandemic travel patterns are still weighing on traffic volumes and creating uncertainty for revenue used to repay transportation debt. The piece highlighted that a sustained shift toward telecommuting can keep road usage below pre-pandemic levels, raising longer-term credit risk for issuers reliant on toll collections.

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