MercadoLibre stock price forecast: $1,700 resistance as MELI advances 3.24%

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MercadoLibre rises 3.24% to $1,612.60

Highlights

MercadoLibre's revenue jumped 49% year over year to $8.85 billion, beating expectations on strong commerce and fintech demand.
Heavy investments in credit cards and logistics reduced profitability, as operating income dropped to $611 million and margins compressed to 6.9%.
MELI trades well below key moving averages with weak momentum, and is likely to drift sideways in the $1,570–$1,660 range absent a resistance breakout.

Profit margin pressure despite revenue surge and market expansion

MercadoLibre's first-quarter 2026 results highlight robust expansion, with revenue surging 49% year over year to $8.85 billion and exceeding consensus expectations, underscoring strong market demand for the company's core commerce and fintech businesses. However, profitability saw pressure as non-GAAP earnings per share fell to $8.23, slightly under forecasts, while significant investment in credit cards and logistics led to operating income dropping to $611 million and operating margin narrowing to 6.9%. Rapid growth in the Brazilian credit card portfolio — now totaling $6.6 billion with 2.7 million cards issued — illustrates a strategic push for market share, though it raises the company's exposure to credit risk. These dynamics collectively explain recent investor reactions and provide important context for today's price direction.

Oversold momentum as key resistance blocks recovery

On the technical side, MELI is trading well below the MA-20 ($1,781.06), MA-50 ($1,746.21), and MA-200 ($2,065.94). The Ichimoku Kijun level at $1,699.22 now serves as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators on the daily chart remain subdued, with the MACD and ADX both reflecting a lack of bullish strength. Several oscillators—including a 32.77 RSI, deeply oversold Stoch RSI, and oversold CCI—signal oversold conditions, while BBP points to sellers dominating intraday momentum.

Range-bound outlook as negative technical bias holds

In the short term, MELI is likely to remain within a typical volatility band between $1,570 and $1,660. The probability of a sustained price increase remains low (less than 20%) due to ongoing negative momentum signals from major technical indicators. The baseline scenario is a sideways drift within the established range, with a bullish breakout requiring a close above $1,700 and renewed selling below $1,570 potentially leading to further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views MercadoLibre’s recent performance as confirmation of strong core business fundamentals, even with profitability coming under short-term pressure. He notes the 49% revenue jump and fintech expansion as signs of healthy demand and strategic ambition in Latin America. Technicals and sentiment are still negative, so sustained upside will need clear confirmation. Karapetjanc remains constructive, with a positive bias for the intermediate term if execution continues. "Robust revenue growth and aggressive fintech investment suggest MercadoLibre is building a powerful long-term platform, but I want to see a technical reversal above $1,700 before turning more bullish."

Earlier, analysts noted that MercadoLibre was facing persistent selling pressure and a broadly bearish outlook despite robust business growth. With current price action still dominated by sellers and oversold technical signals prevailing, investors should closely monitor for a sustained break above the $1,700 resistance as the key catalyst for reversing negative momentum.

Source of Data: MELI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.