Silver climbs as India restricts silver imports

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Silver jumps 2.85% on Indian curbs

Highlights

India's government requires licenses for high-purity silver imports, tightening supply and fueling domestic premiums over global benchmarks.
Regulatory uncertainty has driven increased silver ETF demand and intensified efforts to source BIS-certified domestically refined product, strengthening regional supply dynamics.
Technicals indicate short-term seller exhaustion amid medium-term bullish momentum, with XAG/USD likely to trade between $74.00–$79.00 and a 75% probability of upside.

Supply constraints fuel bullish momentum amid India import curbs

India’s government has imposed new restrictions on imports of high-purity silver bars and semi-manufactured products, making licenses mandatory and restricting the flow of physical silver into one of the largest global markets. These regulatory measures have heightened supply concerns, driving Indian silver prices to trade at a premium over global benchmarks as market participants scramble to secure inventory. The resulting uncertainty is also reflected in a surge in silver ETF demand, while the MCX’s coordinated effort to source domestically refined silver through BIS-certified refiners is shaping the regional supply landscape. Collectively, these developments have reinforced bullish momentum for Silver amid heightened global supply risk.

Mixed momentum signals as trading range defines near-term bias

Technically, XAG has established a trading range between support at the MA-50 ($75.82) and resistance near the Ichimoku Kijun at $80.13, with MA-20 at $77.69 capping immediate gains. Daily momentum is mixed: MACD (D1) signals strong buying conditions, but the ADX reflects a weak trend and hints at ongoing seller pressure. RSI at 45.85 and CCI at -27.42 indicate only mild downward or neutral momentum, whereas the Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) both show oversold readings, suggesting that recent selling may be exhausted. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not confirm a clear directional bias.

Bullish bias prevails unless support breach triggers deeper correction

Over the next five sessions, price action is expected to stay within the $74.00 to $79.00 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of further gains is estimated at 75%, with downside risk limited unless XAG breaks below $74.00 support. If price overcomes resistance and moves above $80.00, a bullish scenario could accelerate gains toward new highs; conversely, a decisive break below $74.00 would open the door for a correction toward the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees the recent surge in Silver as driven by strong supply-side developments, but notes underlying technical signals are mixed. He believes that while regulatory actions in India are supporting bullish sentiment and ETF inflows, resistance near $80.00 and tepid momentum on daily indicators call for caution. The analyst remains wary of downside if $74.00 fails to hold. "Until Silver clearly breaks above $80.00 with more convincing momentum, base case remains range-bound and I stay neutral," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that regulatory shifts and heightened geopolitical risks were amplifying volatility and uncertainty in the silver market. The latest escalation of Indian import restrictions and resulting premium spreads further validate these concerns, making $74.00 a crucial level for traders to monitor as supply-driven volatility remains a key risk factor in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.