Canada warns Alberta separatist push raises political and trade risks

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Canada warns alberta separatist risks

Highlights

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith sets October 19 for a public vote on whether to pursue a referendum on separating from Canada, intensifying constitutional uncertainty.
Support for Alberta separatism remains at 30 percent as Ottawa advances a new pipeline project with 1 million barrels per day capacity amid strained east-west relations.
A court rules a pro-independence petition unconstitutional due to lack of consultation with Alberta's First Nations, prompting Smith to revise the referendum question.

Referendum plan and federal response

As reported by Financial Times, Carney says Alberta's push for separation could follow the pattern of the UK's vote to leave the European Union, with supporters later trying to reverse consequences they did not fully anticipate. Speaking in Ottawa on Monday, he says he saw first-hand during the Brexit campaign how promises of a soft exit gave way to prolonged political and economic fallout.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on Thursday announces plans for a public vote on October 19 to decide whether to pursue a referendum on separating from Canada. Carney says Smith does not always take his advice when asked whether he has tried to dissuade her from moving ahead.

Carney, who served as Bank of England governor during the Brexit campaign, faced criticism at the time for warning that leaving the EU could trigger a recession, cost jobs, raise prices and weaken sterling. He now points to the UK debate over closer ties with the bloc as evidence that major constitutional breaks can produce lasting regret and uncertainty.

Energy politics and broader national stakes

Since Carney was elected prime minister in April last year, separatist sentiment has gained momentum in Alberta, where support for separation stands at about 30 per cent and longstanding grievances with eastern Canada remain politically potent. The dispute unfolds as Ottawa seeks to improve ties with the province and expand access to its oil resources, including groundwork earlier this month for a new pipeline with capacity of 1 million barrels a day.

The issue also emerges while Canada is confronting a trade war with the U.S., and President Donald Trump regularly threatens to annex the country as America's 51st state. That broader pressure adds to the political sensitivity of any separatist movement in a major energy-producing province.

Smith says she supports a united Canada but describes separatists as loyal Albertans who care deeply about the province. Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, an Alberta member of parliament, says all federal Conservative MPs will campaign against separation.

Smith also revises the October question after a court rules last week that a petition backed by 300,000 signatures in support of an independence referendum is unconstitutional because it failed to consult members of Alberta's First Nations, who oppose separatism.

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