Coinbase stock drops 3.59% as sellers control the short-term trend

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Coinbase slides 3.59% to $181.37

Highlights

Coinbase resumes full INR deposit and withdrawal services in India, enabling seamless crypto transactions after regulatory approval.
Norges Bank disclosed a significant institutional acquisition of 2,904,149 Coinbase shares in Q4, indicating ongoing interest amid CFTC approval for offshore perpetual futures.
COIN trades below major moving averages and faces sustained selling pressure, with a five-day expected range of $172.00–$191.00 and muted probability of short-term upside.

Regulatory wins and institutional flows counter broad selling pressure

Coinbase has officially launched direct Indian rupee (INR) deposits and withdrawals for its Indian clients following regulatory clearance, allowing seamless conversion and supporting crypto transactions through the Immediate Payment Service (IMPS). This expansion includes new INR order books and expands both spot and perpetual futures trading in India, marking the firm's operational return to a previously restricted market. Institutional activity was reported, with Norges Bank acquiring 2,904,149 shares in the fourth quarter, while regulatory developments included CFTC approval for Coinbase to offer offshore perpetual crypto futures, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Resistance levels stack as momentum signals stay weak and divergent

COIN is currently trading beneath the SMA-20 at $194.73, SMA-50 at $189.33, and SMA-200 at $248.43, all of which serve as resistance levels. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $195.76 and functions as immediate overhead resistance, while the daily range falls between $177.68 and $186.40. Momentum indicators remain weak, with MACD tracking bearish, ADX neutral, and oscillators such as RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI all showing scant upward momentum or mild oversold signals. Notably, BBP presents an overbought signal, but this diverges from the generally negative momentum, reinforcing near-term technical uncertainty.

Consolidation likely as rebound odds remain capped by technicals

In the short term, expect COIN to trade within a volatility band between $172.00 and $191.00 over the next five sessions. The likelihood of a sustained upside break is low, with less than a 20% probability of recovery, as the prevailing technical backdrop favors consolidation or further losses. A decisive move above $195.76 could open the way for a short-lived rebound, while a breach of $177.00 would increase risk to the downside toward $172.00. Overall, the prevailing scenario is sideways action within the identified range, pending clearer directional catalysts.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Coinbase’s progress in India and new institutional interest as positive signs despite sluggish price action. He believes regulatory clarity and the return to major emerging markets could underpin long-term platform growth. However, technical signals remain weak and upside momentum is limited near term. 'If COIN can build support above key resistance on renewed adoption, the stock may stage a recovery, but I expect range-bound movement while market sentiment stays mixed.'

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent technical weakness and uncertain momentum continued to weigh on Coinbase shares. With expanded Indian market access and additional institutional interest now in play, traders should monitor for any shift in volatility, as a break above $195.76 or below $177.00 may trigger directional moves beyond the current consolidation zone.

Source of Data: COIN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.