U.S. primaries test Trump influence and California election dynamics

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US primaries and California vote

Highlights

California's open governor’s race features a competitive three-way battle between Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton, and Tom Steyer, with slow ballot counting expected.
In Iowa, Trump-endorsed Randy Feenstra must secure at least 35 per cent in the Republican gubernatorial primary or face a nomination contest at the party convention.
San Francisco’s House race to succeed Nancy Pelosi has Scott Wiener as frontrunner, but Pelosi’s endorsement gave Connie Chan’s campaign significant momentum.

California and Iowa races draw the closest scrutiny

As reported by Financial Times, Tuesday’s primaries in California, Iowa, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana and South Dakota are being watched for signals about party momentum ahead of the midterms, when control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs.

In California, the open governor’s race is unfolding under the state’s non-partisan “jungle” primary system, in which the top two vote-getters advance to the November general election regardless of party. Governor Gavin Newsom is not seeking re-election, and the contest shifted earlier this year when Democratic congressman Eric Swalwell dropped out following allegations of sexual misconduct and assault.

Six leading contenders remain, including former health and human services secretary Xavier Becerra, Republican Steve Hilton, hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer, sheriff Chad Bianco, former congresswoman Katie Porter and San Jose mayor Matt Mahan. Most polls suggest a three-way fight between Becerra, Hilton and Steyer, while ballot counting in California could stretch well beyond election night, as it did in the 2024 cycle.

In Iowa, the Republican gubernatorial primary is emerging as another test of Trump’s hold on the party base. Trump endorsed congressman Randy Feenstra last Friday, but under Iowa law he must secure at least 35 per cent of the vote on Tuesday or the nominee will instead be chosen at a party convention.

Democrats are also targeting the state, with auditor Rob Sand running a well-funded moderate campaign in a place that Barack Obama once carried twice before Trump established dominance there.

Local contests and House races shape broader political signals

Los Angeles is hosting another closely watched non-partisan primary, this time for mayor of the U.S.’s second-largest city. Incumbent Karen Bass faces strong challenges from reality television figure Spencer Pratt and progressive city council member Nithya Raman, with recent polling showing the three candidates tightly grouped.

Bass, who has served as mayor since 2022, is contending with voter dissatisfaction over the city’s direction. Pratt, a registered Republican who became more active in local politics after his home was destroyed in the Palisades fire in early 2025, is campaigning on tougher policing and action against homeless encampments, while Raman is promoting expanded public services and stronger support for the film industry.

Another prominent California contest is taking shape in San Francisco, where Democrats are competing to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is set to retire at the end of the year. State senator Scott Wiener is seen as the frontrunner, though he faces competition from San Francisco supervisor Connie Chan and Justice Democrats co-founder Saikat Chakrabarti.

Chan’s campaign received momentum after Pelosi endorsed her last month, citing her leadership qualities and links to organised labour. Chakrabarti, meanwhile, is presenting himself as the most progressive option in the race, underscoring the ideological divisions that continue to shape Democratic contests in high-profile urban districts.

Our earlier coverage of the leaked Mandelson files detailed mounting internal criticism of Keir Starmer and the concern among Labour strategists that his leadership style could blunt the party’s election push. We noted that renewed infighting risked distracting Labour’s campaign and making it harder to turn dissatisfaction with the government into broader voter support.

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