U.S. plans Nato rapid-response force cuts as Europe weighs defence burden

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Ciaran Ryan

1 hour ago

U.S. plans Nato rapid-response force cuts as Europe weighs defence burden — US to cut Nato force

European allies are seeking answers from Washington over proposed cuts to U.S. military assets assigned to Nato’s rapid-response pool, a move that is sharpening concern over the alliance’s deterrence posture against Russia. The plans affect naval and air capabilities that can be deployed within 10 days during a crisis and come as the Trump administration pushes Europe to assume a larger share of regional defence.

Highlights

U.S. plans to withdraw a carrier strike group, all cruise missile submarines, and 54 fighter jets from the Nato Force Model, as detailed in a recently leaked list.
Washington will also reduce P-8s, cut aerial refuelling aircraft from 79 to 63, and withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany while cancelling a long-range fire battalion deployment.
European officials express uncertainty over the timeline of reductions, warning weakened NATO maritime power may embolden Russia, as NATO summit in Ankara nears.

Proposed force reductions and alliance discussions

As first reported by Die Welt, a leaked list published late on Wednesday details U.S. plans to withdraw key assets from the Nato Force Model, including one of the two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups currently assigned to the alliance and all submarines capable of launching cruise missiles such as Tomahawks.

The proposals also reduce the number of U.S. P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft used to track submarines, cut aerial refuelling aircraft to 63 from 79, and lower the number of F-16 and F-15E fighter jets assigned to Nato to 99 from 153. The changes are presented to allies in recent weeks, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The planned reductions come as President Donald Trump continues efforts to scale back the U.S. military presence in Europe and redirect strategic attention toward Asia and the western hemisphere. Washington also announces plans in recent weeks to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany and cancel deployment of a long-range fire battalion due to arrive there later this year.

The Pentagon points to a statement from U.S. European Command saying Elbridge Colby, the under-secretary of defence for policy, is leading the overhaul to ensure Europe takes primary responsibility for its conventional defence. The statement adds that Alexander Velez-Green, chief of staff and senior counsellor to Colby, notifies allies during a meeting of defence policy officials in Brussels on May 22.

European concerns and defence implications

Uncertainty over the scope and timing of the reductions is becoming a central issue ahead of Nato’s annual summit in Ankara next month, where shifting more of the military burden to European allies is expected to dominate discussions. One European official says allies still do not know whether the reductions happen in two, three or five years, while another says U.S. interlocutors are trying to reassure capitals that many of the affected capabilities already exist in European militaries, though on a smaller scale.

Defence experts and officials in Europe warn that Russia could invade a Nato country within the next two to three years. German military and intelligence officials estimate such an attack could happen by 2029, while Latvia’s armed forces commander, General Kaspars Pudans, says this week that Russia could exploit a window of opportunity by the end of 2028 to invade the Baltic states after gaining an edge in drone warfare over Nato countries.

Carlo Masala, a professor at Bundeswehr Munich university, says the cuts signal that the U.S. is less committed to Europe’s defence than in the past and argues the full picture also depends on how many troops are pulled out of Europe. He says the list of assets marked for removal suggests maritime power projection in the Atlantic Ocean and along Nato’s southern flank is likely to be weakened more than the alliance’s eastern flank.

Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute says the Nato Force Model is part of contingency planning and that the assumed distribution of support is changing. Nato says Europe and Canada are investing more in defence and building more capabilities, allowing responsibility to shift in a way that reduces overdependence on one ally and puts the alliance on a more sustainable footing.

Our earlier article on the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) provisions detailed how the House Armed Services Committee is pushing a procurement and sustainment package focused on next-generation capabilities. It highlighted multiyear contracting authority for F-35 and F-15EX aircraft, added helicopter purchases, expanded drone and counter-drone standards, and targets to scale 155mm munitions production to 100,000 rounds per month.

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