Euro vs Indian Rupee price forecast: ₹111.3960 resistance as EUR/INR trades flat

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Euro vs Indian Rupee rises 0.65% today

Highlights

Indian banks have sharply raised foreign-currency deposit rates, reaching up to 7.1%, to attract NRI funds and bolster rupee stability.
The Reserve Bank of India has introduced new US dollar-rupee forex swaps, expanding banks' access to foreign capital and enhancing liquidity.
EUR/INR technicals indicate a bullish structure above key averages, but probability favors a range-bound drift toward ₹110.18–₹111.40, with downside more likely short term.

Foreign-currency deposit incentives rise as RBI seeks rupee stability

Indian banks have significantly raised rates on foreign-currency deposits for overseas residents, quickly implementing new Reserve Bank of India measures to boost capital inflows and stabilize the rupee amid high oil prices and domestic deposit competition. By offering attractive rates—as high as 7.1% for five-year deposits at Yes Bank Ltd. and AU Small Finance Bank, and up to 6% at HDFC Bank Ltd. and Central Bank of India—these institutions aim to draw more overseas funds, directly increasing the supply of foreign currency and supporting rupee demand. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India has introduced two new US dollar-rupee forex swap facilities, further enhancing liquidity and improving access to foreign capital for banks.

Upward momentum holds as buy signals and supports align

Technically, EUR/INR remains above its H1 MA-20 at ₹110.3686, MA-50 at ₹110.2364, and long-term MA-200 at ₹107.5153, confirming that the upward bias persists across short, medium, and long timeframes. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ₹110.2992, marking immediate support, while the next resistance is projected at ₹111.3960 with support near ₹110.1789. Momentum studies indicate firm strength: MACD and ADX both present buy signals, RSI is at 51.8791 (buy signal), Stoch RSI shows a strong buy, and CCI reads neutral, pointing to neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power affirms strong buyer dominance intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) reflects ongoing upside momentum. No major divergences appear among oscillators to contradict the current trend.

Modest pullback risk grows as breakout odds decrease

Looking ahead to the next two to three days, EUR/INR is expected to move within a typical volatility band of ₹110.1789 to ₹111.3960. There is a 40% likelihood of an upside breakout, while a move lower carries a 60% probability, suggesting a slightly higher risk of pullback than further gains. The most probable scenario is that the price consolidates within the current corridor, while a break above resistance could see renewed buying interest, and a close below immediate support may trigger accelerated selling.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the EUR/INR pair holding firm above key technical levels, but notes that the policy-driven capital inflows have not yet resulted in a sustained breakout. He believes current momentum and institutional measures favor rupee stability, though near-term risks remain skewed toward a pullback below ₹110.1789. Price action is supported, but confirmation is lacking for a decisive trend. "Until ₹111.3960 is convincingly broken, I remain cautious and expect consolidation to persist."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/INR was experiencing short-term selling pressure within a broader uptrend, with signals pointing to potential upside if key resistance was breached. The current environment, characterized by firmer technical momentum and enhanced capital inflows into India, suggests that market participants should closely monitor whether EUR/INR can sustain above immediate support, as a decisive move in either direction may set the tone for the next trend leg.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.