Gold holds steady after sanctioned actors exploit gold supply chains

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Gold slides 0.35% today on risk-off

Highlights

Escalating US-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sparked fears of energy disruption and elevated inflation risks.
Gold markets face heavy selling as investors seek to reduce risk, while gaps in regulation allow sanctioned entities to control crucial supply chains.
Gold trades above short-term support amid overbought technical signals, with price expected to oscillate between $4,045.75 and $4,346.69.

Inflation concerns and sanctions evasion as Iran tensions fuel gold sell-off

US military strikes against Iran intensified, and Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting a vital global shipping corridor. This action raised concerns over energy supply and inflated inflation risks, leading investors to reduce risk exposure through broad sell-offs in gold. Additionally, regulatory gaps continue to be exploited by sanctioned entities and criminal networks that now control significant portions of gold supply chains, enabling sanctions evasion and complicating enforcement efforts.

Conflicting momentum signals as price tests intermediate trend limits

Gold is trading above the MA-20 ($4,134.11) but remains below the MA-50 ($4,208.56) and MA-200 ($4,637.59). The Ichimoku Kijun line at $4,134.35 serves as immediate support. Momentum readings show an RSI of 58.54 indicating a Buy signal, with ADX also providing a Buy and both MACD and Awesome Oscillator staying Neutral. The Commodity Channel Index and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) carry a bullish bias, while the Stoch RSI and BBP are signaling overbought conditions, reflecting divergence within momentum indicators and moderate volatility in intraday price action.

Sideways trade favored as breakout risks shape short-term outlook

In the short term, the expected price range for gold is likely to remain within $4,045.75 to $4,346.69, which is well within the typical volatility band for recent sessions. There is a 58% probability of an upward move, though the baseline scenario anticipates continued sideways trading between established support and resistance. A breakout above near-term resistance may drive further gains, whereas a sustained move below the Kijun support could trigger additional downside.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees gold held back by both fresh geopolitical risk and widespread regulatory concerns. Despite bullish signals from momentum indicators, he notes that technical resistance above $4,208.56 limits immediate upside. Base case remains for sideways action unless the Kijun support at $4,134.35 fails. "Until gold decisively breaks above intermediate resistance, I remain cautious and expect price to range within recent levels."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold was experiencing mixed momentum amid diverging regional demand and persistent macroeconomic pressures. The latest escalation in geopolitical tensions and the emergence of supply chain vulnerabilities introduce new upside and downside risks, making breakout direction beyond the current consolidation band especially critical for short-term traders.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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