Tesla rebounds as SpaceX draws attention away from stock
Tesla shares managed to hold a key support level despite growing investor attention surrounding SpaceX's IPO. The question now is how long the positive sentiment can last.
SpaceX has officially surpassed Tesla in market capitalization. Following the largest IPO in history, SpaceX's valuation exceeded $2 trillion, while Tesla is currently valued at approximately $1.5 trillion.
For investors, this could be a symbolic moment — for the first time, Elon Musk's most valuable asset is no longer Tesla.
Additional pressure may come from renewed scrutiny of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system. According to Reuters, Tesla provided materials to European regulators that independent experts believe may have been misleading when assessing the safety of FSD technology. This has reignited debate over the company's ability to secure broader regulatory approval for autonomous driving in Europe.
As a result, investors are once again focusing on one of Tesla's most important valuation drivers: the future monetization of autonomous driving and robotaxi services.
Tesla faces a decisive test at $415
As noted in our previous analysis, TSLA tested the local support level at $384. The stock briefly moved below that level, triggering stop-loss orders from short-term traders, before recovering and moving back above support.
The key level to watch now is $415. This area coincides with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), medium-term resistance, and a short-term trendline.
A successful breakout above $415 would increase the probability of a rapid move toward $435.
However, the negative news flow could undermine the chances of such a breakout. The risk of a decline toward $368 remains relevant.
Autonomous driving remains Tesla's key challenge
Despite strong performance in its energy business and electric vehicle operations, a significant portion of Tesla's long-term valuation is still tied to autonomous driving.
That is why any regulatory concerns or doubts regarding the company's marketing claims tend to be taken very seriously by the market.
The latest Reuters report serves as another reminder that the path toward widespread adoption of fully autonomous transportation is proving far more complex than many investors expected just a few years ago.
At the same time, Tesla retains one major advantage: the scale of its real-world driving data and its leadership position in autonomous driving development.
However, investors are gradually becoming less interested in promises of future technology and more focused on evidence of its commercial viability.
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