MA-200 support underpins US Dollar vs Polish Złoty stability

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US Dollar vs Polish Złoty slides 0.51%

Highlights

The Federal Reserve's latest H.15 report updates U.S. Treasury yields, impacting perceived yield differentials versus the Polish złoty.
Shifts in rate expectations sparked by fresh Fed data can influence USD/PLN cross-currency flows and liquidity conditions.
USD/PLN trades below key short-term averages with bearish momentum; projected to fluctuate in a zł3.6314–zł3.6678 range with downside bias prevailing.

Yield curve update shifts market flows and FX expectations

the Federal Reserve published its daily H.15 Selected Interest Rates report on June 12, 2026, providing updated figures for U.S. Treasury yields and the effective federal funds rate. The release, by delivering new data on yield curves and funding rates, can alter market perceptions of interest rate differentials between the U.S. dollar and Polish złoty, consequently affecting cross-currency flows. Market participants may adjust their expectations for USD/PLN liquidity and demand based on the current yield environment, according to the Federal Reserve.

Downside momentum builds amid oversold signals and low volatility

On the technical front, USD/PLN is trading below both the MA-20 and MA-50, which reinforces near- and medium-term resistance, while the MA-200 beneath current price acts as key long-term support. The Ichimoku Kijun is set at zł3.6635, serving as immediate overhead resistance. Momentum indicators confirm pronounced downside pressure: MACD signals a Sell, ADX is Neutral, and RSI and CCI both register in oversold territory, with Stoch RSI also oversold. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) and the Awesome Oscillator further corroborate seller dominance, and price action has finished near session lows on low volatility.

Downward bias persists as resistance holds and support is tested

For the next two to three sessions, the projected trading band is zł3.6314–zł3.6678, describing a typical volatility range for the pair. The prevailing scenario assigns a very low probability to an upward move, with a strong likelihood that prices will either drift sideways or resume their downward direction. An upward reversal would require a push above the immediate resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun, while a decisive move lower would be initiated by a break below the current long-term support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees the USD/PLN pair weighed down by persistent downside momentum and underperformance below its moving averages. He believes the Federal Reserve's latest H.15 data underscores shifts in global yield differentials, dampening demand for the dollar against the Polish złoty. Short-term technicals confirm a bearish scenario unless resistance at zł3.6635 is retaken. "For now, the macro backdrop and market structure point to more downside or sideways trade for USD/PLN, with little reason to expect a sustained rebound until sentiment or rates shift in the dollar's favor," Karapetjanc concludes.

Earlier, analysts noted that the USD/PLN maintained a cautiously bullish tone but with signals of slowing upside momentum amid mixed technical readings. The latest technical and macro developments now indicate a clear shift toward downside risk, making sustained breaches below long-term support levels critical for future trend direction.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.