National Grid stock declines as downward pressure persists above long-term support

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National Grid slides 1.35% today

Highlights

National Grid delivered an 8% increase in underlying earnings per share to 78.0p, confirming sustained profit growth.
A final dividend of 32.14p lifts the full-year payout to 48.49p, demonstrating reliable capital returns for shareholders.
Although medium- and long-term technical trends remain bullish, short-term signals show selling pressure, with price likely to trade between GBX1,194.08 and GBX1,232.50 and a 65% chance of further declines.

Earnings growth and dividend policy support sentiment amid selloff

National Grid reported underlying earnings per share of 78.0p, an 8% increase at constant currency, reflecting ongoing profitability and earnings growth. The announcement of a recommended final dividend of 32.14p, with a full-year payout reaching 48.49p, provides tangible capital distribution for shareholders and highlights stable cash flows. Upcoming key shareholder events, including the scrip election deadline on June 18, the July 14 AGM, and the July 23 final dividend payment, shape the near-term event calendar for market participants, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed signals as resistance holds and momentum remains indecisive

On the H1 timeframe, the price is currently below the MA-20 at 1,210.59 but remains above the MA-50 at 1,203.93, signaling immediate intraday resistance and support, respectively. The daily chart places the asset above the MA-200 at 1,184.11, while the Ichimoku Kijun on the D1 chart is at GBX1,209.47, serving as the next major resistance level. MACD presents a strong buy signal at the current level, while ADX is neutral, reflecting uncertain trend strength. RSI offers a sell signal near oversold levels, and both the Stoch RSI and BBP indicate an oversold condition, with CCI and AO turning neutral and implying little conviction in either direction.

Range-bound outlook as downside risk outweighs breakout potential

Over the next several trading days, NG is expected to move within a volatility band between GBX1,194.08 and GBX1,232.50. Current market dynamics assign a 65% likelihood to further declines, with only a 35% probability of a breakout to the upside. The baseline scenario sees the asset remaining range-bound, while a bullish reversal would require a breakout above the immediate resistance, and a decisive drop below support could accelerate downside momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees National Grid’s technical setup as fragile with little momentum for a bullish reversal. He notes that while the company delivered earnings growth and increased dividends, price action is still dominated by selling pressure and mixed signals from key indicators. Immediate support and resistance levels look firm, but the overall risk remains to the downside. "Until GBX1,209.47 is reclaimed and momentum flips, my base case is further weakness or sideways consolidation."

Earlier, analysts noted that National Grid’s outlook had turned more constructive, supported by robust earnings growth and a substantial capital investment plan driving renewed optimism for the shares. With the current loss of short-term momentum but ongoing longer-term support, traders should closely monitor the price action around the daily Ichimoku Kijun and MA-50 as potential inflection points for a breakout or further downside acceleration.

Source of Data: NG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.