$4,247.01–$4,400.89 range keeps Gold flat near $4,323.95

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Gold slides 0.17% amid central bank demand

Highlights

A record 45% of central bank reserve managers intend to boost gold holdings in the next 12 months, signaling robust institutional demand.
Overall, 89% of surveyed managers foresee global central bank gold reserves rising, underscoring persistent structural demand despite selling pressures.
Gold remains below key moving averages with mixed momentum signals, likely to trade sideways between $4,247.01 and $4,400.89 in the near term.

Central bank buying intentions rise as institutional demand strengthens

The World Gold Council's latest survey, reported Tuesday, found that 45% of central bank reserve managers expect to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months, setting a new record for institutional acquisition expectations. This expectation of increased buying activity from central banks represents a strong demand backdrop for the commodity, with 89% of global reserve managers anticipating an overall rise in central bank gold holdings according to the World Gold Council. Persistent structural demand from these institutions has been a steady factor in the market, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum signals amid resistance and oversold readings

On the hourly chart, XAU/USD trades below the MA-20 at $4,331.92 and the MA-50 at $4,331.94, with the long-term MA-200 at $4,642.16 remaining above all near-term price action. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $4,335.45 stands as immediate resistance. Among momentum indicators, MACD and ADX both display neutral readings, while RSI stands at 46.93 (Sell) and CCI also signals Sell. Stoch RSI has entered oversold territory, indicating that the recent downside move is becoming stretched. BBP, however, remains overbought, suggesting that buyers still exert notable intraday influence despite diverging signals from other oscillators. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral. Divergence persists between oversold oscillators and the strong BBP reading.

Downside favored as price likely ranges below resistance

Looking ahead over the next 2-3 trading days, the anticipated price range for XAU/USD is $4,247.01 to $4,400.89, illustrating a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a short-term upward move is estimated at 33%, with a higher likelihood of continued downward movement. The baseline scenario contemplates gold prices remaining constrained within a sideways corridor. A bullish scenario would require a decisive move above resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun and nearby moving averages, whereas a bearish scenario is signaled if gold falls below the projected lower boundary, suggesting further downside continuation.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that even record institutional buying expectations from central banks have not stemmed the ongoing pressure on gold prices. He sees technical indicators as neutral to bearish, with downside momentum dominating unless key resistance levels are recovered. The analyst remains cautious, viewing central bank demand as a floor, but not a catalyst for immediate upside. "Unless gold can reclaim and hold above the $4,335.45 resistance, I remain defensive in my outlook."

Earlier, analysts noted that easing geopolitical tensions and robust institutional demand had established a bullish backdrop for gold. However, the recent loss of technical momentum and prevailing downside risk highlight that traders should now watch for a decisive move above short-term resistance levels, as a failure to reclaim these could extend the retracement toward the lower end of the projected range.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.