US Dollar vs Polish Złoty holds steady after testing zł3.7304 resistance

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US Dollar vs Polish Złoty up 0.53%

Highlights

The Federal Reserve's updated H.15 report signals ongoing USD policy stance and enhances global demand and liquidity for the Dollar.
Expanded data coverage—capturing both inflation-indexed and nominal Treasury yields—improves transparency and investor confidence in USD/PLN exchange dynamics.
USD/PLN maintains firm bullish momentum, trading within zł3.6923–zł3.7304, though overbought conditions hint at potential near-term exhaustion.

Liquidity boost and rate clarity as Fed signals drive demand

the Federal Reserve has released its latest H.15 interest rate report, providing updated daily effective federal funds rates and closing yields on U.S. Treasury securities. By publishing this data, the Fed offers market participants fresh signals on USD policy stance and yield trends, which boosts demand and liquidity for the US Dollar in global FX markets. The report's inclusion of both non-inflation-indexed and inflation-indexed securities, as well as clear notes on transaction-level data collection and calculation methodologies, deepens investor understanding of rate movements and supports confidence in exchange rates like USD/PLN.

Upside momentum persists as oscillators reach overbought conditions

On the technical front, USD/PLN is trading above the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200 on the hourly timeframe, underscoring robust momentum. Immediate support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun level at zł3.6753. Both MACD and ADX indicate ongoing buy signals, while momentum oscillators such as RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI highlight overbought territory. Bull/Bear Power points to sustained buyer pressure intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, offering no further directional bias.

High probability of further gains as downside risks remain muted

In the short term, USD/PLN is forecast to trade within a volatility band of zł3.6923 to zł3.7304 over the next two to three sessions. There is a very high probability of further upside, with downside risks assessed as very low. The base scenario expects consolidation between these support and resistance levels, while a sustained push above zł3.7304 could trigger additional gains. Any move below immediate support at zł3.6753 would signal a potential reversal, although this scenario is currently unlikely.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees strong macro and fundamental drivers supporting USD/PLN at current levels. He believes the Fed’s latest H.15 release has improved investor confidence and fueled additional demand for the US Dollar. Technical positioning remains constructive, with upside momentum clear above key moving averages and indicators. "With consistent policy signals from the Federal Reserve and robust market appetite, I expect USD/PLN to remain resilient and see further gains in the near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PLN was exhibiting a bullish technical structure but faced short-term uncertainty due to diverging momentum signals and the risk of a breakout or breakdown. The latest developments not only reinforce the bullish outlook with fresh confirmation from Federal Reserve rate data, but also place emphasis on the importance of sustained closes above zł3.7304, which could act as a catalyst for further upward momentum.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.