UK retail sales rise in May as warm weather and promotions lift spending

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UK retail sales rise in May

Highlights

UK retail sales volumes rose 1.2% in May, beating expectations for a 0.5% increase and reversing April's 1.0% decline, according to ONS data.
Annual sales volumes rose 3.2% versus forecasts for a 1.9% increase, with clothing and online retailers experiencing notable demand due to warm weather and promotions.
Consumer confidence data for June shows household willingness to make major purchases at its lowest since January 2025, as ongoing Middle East conflict heightens uncertainty.

May sales rebound exceeds forecasts

As reported by the Office for National Statistics, retail sales volumes in the UK rise 1.2% in May after a 1.0% fall in April, above economists' forecasts for a 0.5% increase in a Reuters poll.

Compared with a year earlier, sales volumes are 3.2% higher, beating expectations for a 1.9% rise. Excluding petrol, overall sales volumes also increase 1.2% month on month and are up 4.6% from a year earlier.

Sandra Prince, head of consumer at Lloyds Bank, says warmer weather and the half-term holidays encourage more people to go out and spend, with clothing and online retailers showing particularly strong demand. She adds that shoppers are still being selective with their money, while retailers are using promotions and a strong value focus to keep prices low despite continuing cost pressures.

Consumer caution tempers summer outlook

Retailers are now looking to sustain the May momentum through the summer shopping season, with Prince saying the upcoming World Cup could provide another lift to demand.

Still, broader consumer sentiment remains fragile. A separate survey published earlier on Friday shows consumer confidence holds steady in June, but younger people are the least optimistic in two years about the economy and their personal finances, while households are the least willing to make major purchases since January 2025.

Major British retailers also say the Middle East conflict continues to create uncertainty for consumers. While some see limited grounds for optimism after U.S. President Donald Trump's interim deal with Iran, they are still closely monitoring the effect on their costs.

In our earlier article on UK consumer confidence in June, we noted that the headline GfK index held steady versus May but masked underlying weakness. Sentiment among 16–29-year-olds slid to a two-year low, while intentions to make major purchases stayed at their weakest level since January 2025, pointing to continued pressure on spending despite pockets of stabilisation.

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