Moderna surges after FDA backing, but profit-taking risks emerge
Moderna shares posted their strongest weekly performance in more than four years following the FDA's decision regarding its influenza vaccine.
The main catalyst behind Moderna's rally was support from the FDA's advisory committee. The panel unanimously voted that the benefits of mRNA-1010 (mFluSiva) outweigh its risks for patients aged 50 and older. The FDA's final decision is expected in early August.
The news was particularly important given developments earlier this year, when the FDA initially declined to review Moderna's application, raising serious investor concerns about the vaccine's prospects. The regulator later reversed its position and resumed the review process.
The market reacted very positively. Over the past six trading sessions, Moderna shares have gained more than 37%, delivering their best weekly performance in over four years.
Profit-taking risk rises after Moderna's explosive rally
As mentioned in our previous analysis, MRNA has fully played out the expected bullish scenario. After breaking above local resistance at $59.50, the stock accelerated toward the next resistance level at $67.75.
According to candlestick analysis, a short-term pullback is expected, with the stock likely to test the $59.50–$60.00 support zone. Since MRNA has advanced for four consecutive sessions and formed a doji candle on elevated volume on Friday, the probability of profit-taking by short-term traders has increased over the coming days.
Another negative factor from a technical perspective is the RSI (14). The indicator has entered overbought territory, providing an additional signal that a short-term correction may be approaching.
New vaccine offers hope for sustainable growth
For Moderna, the significance of mFluSiva extends far beyond a single product.
Over the past several years, investors have been concerned about the company's heavy reliance on declining COVID-19 vaccine revenues. A successful approval of its influenza vaccine would provide the first major proof that Moderna can develop commercially successful products outside the COVID segment.
On the other hand, Moderna's pipeline extends far beyond a single flu vaccine. The company is currently developing a broad range of products, including prophylactic vaccines, cancer vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology therapies, localized regenerative therapeutics, systemic secreted therapeutics, inhaled pulmonary therapeutics, and systemic intracellular therapeutics.
If even a portion of these programs successfully receives FDA approval and reaches commercialization, Moderna could significantly reduce its dependence on declining COVID-related revenue. In that scenario, the company would gain multiple new revenue streams, potentially laying the foundation for a prolonged bullish phase in MRNA shares over the long term.
Nevertheless, the technical picture points to a near-term pullback toward support levels. Short-term traders have generated substantial profits over the past week, making moderate selling pressure likely in the coming days.
Latest Moderna News
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