WTI is trading around $73-74 per barrel and remains under pressure after a sharp pullback from its spring highs. The key driver in recent sessions has been the decline in the geopolitical premium: the market is pricing in improved tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the potential recovery of some Iranian supplies, easing fears of a deficit.
Fundamental drivers
Fresh EIA data looks mixed for oil. US commercial crude inventories fell by 8.3 million barrels in the week ending June 12 to 418.2 million barrels, about 6% below the five-year average. This is a supportive factor, but it is partly offset by high refinery runs in the US, steady production near 13.8 million barrels per day, and expectations of supply normalization from the Middle East.
Forecasts and risks
The EIA’s June forecast was still based on a stricter scenario, in which traffic through Hormuz recovers gradually and Brent holds near $105 per barrel in June-July. However, current market dynamics already reflect a softer scenario: prices are falling as traders reassess the likelihood of a prolonged supply disruption. At the same time, the risk of a sudden reversal remains if US-Iran talks stall again or regional logistics deteriorate.
Technical picture
On the 4-hour chart, WTI remains below the main moving averages, while the price structure is still downward. The nearest support zone is around $72-73, followed by the important $70 and $68.5 levels. To ease the pressure, the price needs to return above $75.5-77.5; only a sustained move above $80 would improve the short-term outlook and call the current bearish impulse into question.
Conclusion
The base-case scenario remains cautiously bearish: fundamentally, the market is supported by low US inventories, but the decline in the geopolitical premium and expectations of recovering supply are weighing more heavily. As long as WTI trades below $77.5-80, rebounds look more corrective than trend-reversing, as I emphasized in the article WTI holds near $75 as market weighs Iran de-escalation against supply risks.
-
Afghanistan
-
Albania
-
Algeria
-
Angola
-
Argentina
-
Armenia
-
Australia
-
Austria
-
Azerbaijan
-
Bahamas
-
Bahrain
-
Bangladesh
-
Belarus
-
Belgium
-
Bolivia
-
Botswana
-
Brazil
-
Brunei
-
Bulgaria
-
Cambodia
-
Cameroon
-
Canada
-
Chile
-
China
-
Colombia
-
Congo
-
Costa Rica
-
Cote d'Ivoire
-
Croatia
-
Cuba
-
Cyprus
-
Czechia
-
DR Congo
-
Denmark
-
Dominican Republic
-
Ecuador
-
Egypt
-
El Salvador
-
Estonia
-
Eswatini
-
Ethiopia
-
Finland
-
France
-
Georgia
-
Germany
-
Ghana
-
Greece
-
Haiti
-
Hong Kong
-
Hungary
-
India
-
Indonesia
-
Iran, Islamic republic
-
Iraq
-
Ireland
-
Israel
-
Italy
-
Jamaica
-
Japan
-
Jordan
-
Kazakhstan
-
Kenya
-
Korea
-
Kuwait
-
Kyrgyzstan
-
Laos
-
Latvia
-
Lebanon
-
Lesotho
-
Libya
-
Lithuania
-
Luxembourg
-
Madagascar
-
Malaysia
-
Malta
-
Mauritius
-
Mexico
-
Moldova
-
Mongolia
-
Montenegro
-
Morocco
-
Mozambique
-
Myanmar
-
Namibia
-
Nepal
-
Netherlands
-
New Zealand
-
Nigeria
-
North Macedonia
-
Norway
-
Oman
-
Pakistan
-
Palestine
-
Panama
-
Papua New Guinea
-
Paraguay
-
Peru
-
Philippines
-
Poland
-
Portugal
-
Puerto Rico
-
Qatar
-
Reunion
-
Romania
-
Rwanda
-
Saudi Arabia
-
Serbia
-
Singapore
-
Slovakia
-
Slovenia
-
Somalia
-
South Africa
-
Spain
-
Sri Lanka
-
Sweden
-
Switzerland
-
Syria
-
Taiwan
-
Tajikistan
-
Tanzania
-
Thailand
-
Trinidad and Tobago
-
Tunisia
-
Turkey
-
UAE
-
Uganda
-
Ukraine
-
United Kingdom
-
United States
-
Uruguay
-
Uzbekistan
-
Venezuela
-
Vietnam
-
Yemen
-
Zambia
-
Zimbabwe
- Forex
- Crypto
